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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月欧洲钢铁行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
We expect steel prices to quickly move
upwards over the coming months
driven by supply side discipline and
higher raw material costs
􀀗 Using 2000-09 average valuation misses
the point completely and structurally
undervalues steel mills in our view
􀀗 We upgrade Voestalpine to OW(V), TP
EUR32, raise ArcelorMittal’s TP to
USD56 (OW(V)), Salzgitter’s TP to
EUR76 (N(V)), and maintain OW(V) and
TP EUR30 on ThyssenKrupp
Fear beats greed - temporarily
Looking at recent rating changes across the steel sector
indicates to us that consensus is becoming increasingly
positive on the prospects for European steel. Our positive
stance, which was far from the consensus view back in
October, has become more mainstream recently. Recent data
supports our view that the volume recovery progresses well
in the flat steel segment and production now matches
underlying demand. We remain cautious on long steel
products where demand remains weak and government
projects have had no meaningful impact. Inventories remain
clean and so we expect the current level to be sustainable
with further growth coming from the economic recovery.
Steel prices were seasonally weak at the end of Q4, with the
weakness slightly amplified by low Chinese prices. We
expect to see strongly rising steel prices ahead as the
remarkably high supply side discipline allows the mills to
pass on higher raw material costs.
We take a closer look at normalised valuation in the steel
sector and conclude that considerable value remains to be
captured in the European steel names and we remain positive
on the sector as it is trading far below normalised multiples
in our view. Our pecking order for the upcoming results
season is ArcelorMittal (captive raw material, spot market
exposure), Voestalpine (market share gains early scale
effects), ThyssenKrupp (restructuring story) and Salzgitter
(long steel).
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