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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
Burden of proof returns to
Greece
Deutsche Bank AG/London
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Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Special Report
Table of Contents
Greece: The burden of proof returns................ Page 03
Euroland: The recovery will flatten ................... Page 08
Euro area banking: Interbank deleveraging ...... Page 10
Euroland Inflation.............................................. Page 14
UK Budget 2010: More needs to be done ....... Page 17
Rate Views ....................................................... Page 21
Research Team
Euroland
Thomas Mayer
(+44) 20 754-72884
Gilles Moec
(+44) 20 754-52088
Mark Wall
(+44) 20 754-52087
UK/Scandinavia
George Buckley
(+44) 20 754-51372
Central Europe
Gillian Edgeworth
(+44) 20 754-74900
Inflation Strategy/Economics
Markus Heider
(+44) 20 754-52167
Economics Global Markets Research Macro
The euro area has at last offered some clarity on the composition of a
financial aid package for Greece, though important details remain absent.
Agreement on aid, signs of fiscal out-performance and announced changes
to ECB rules on collateral eligibility are all beneficial to Greek assets.
The burden of proof in terms of fiscal consolidation will lie with the Greek
government for some time to come. The government’s consolidation plan is
ambitious, although history provides us with evidence that it is achievable
and, over the medium to long term, economic activity can surprise on the
upside with consolidations. However, the market won’t tolerate slippage.
We see three sets of downside risks for Greece. First, continued underperformance
on economic activity risks translating into reform fatigue and
slippage on targets. Second, gradual withdrawal of liquidity by central banks
globally may discourage inflows into GGBs and in a more negative scenario
translate into outflows. Third, uncertainty remains on the ability of Greece to
access further official aid, if required.
Also this week, we present our updated ECB call. With the recovery likely to
struggle, inflation benign, expectations anchored and fiscal policy having to
tighten to achieve sustainability, the ECB can afford to wait before
tightening monetary policy. We have pushed our expected timing for the
first hike back to March 2011. We also look at the euro area banking sector
balance sheet. The deleveraging after the collapse of Lehman Brothers was
concentrated on interbank activity. There are signs of stabilization.
We look at euro area labour costs. We expect labour cost growth to continue
to slow through this year and see this weighing on underlying inflation.
Finally, we look back at the UK budget. It did very little to change the fiscal
stance. While we do not see a ratings downgrade of the UK from its current
AAA status, we do believe that more needs to be done to reduce the deficit.
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