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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月香港地产行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
A modest growth outlook for HK office
rents; Central should outperform
(+15-20%) vs fringe areas (+0-10%)
Demand muted given big financials
have large amount of unused space
Maintain OW(V) on Hysan and GE on
potential street NAV upgrades; C-REIT,
also OW(V), still offers attractive yield
Subdued outlook. Office rent growth is likely to be subdued
in 2010, as financial institutions over-expanded prior to the
financial crisis. Our analysis suggests there is a large amount
of unused office space, sufficient to house an additional
1,450-2,200 staff. We expect demand to be muted this year,
leading to a modest growth outlook for Hong Kong office
rents. Potential upside could come from the rapid expansion
of PRC financial firms and an active office sales market,
which could drive up capital values.
Don’t expect earnings surprises. Hong Kong landlords
(including C-REIT) will report their FY09 financial results
starting end-February. Our FY09 core EPS estimates are within
-4% and +3% of consensus forecasts. As a result of the weak
commercial leasing market (office and hotel) in 2009, Hysan
and GE’s core EPS are expected to drop 9% and 12% y-o-y,
respectively, while the sizeable increase in HKL’s EPS is
due to a strong contribution from property sales. To factor in
the latest sales, office leasing and hotel performance, we
revise our FY09 EPS by between -3% and +5%.
Focus on value plays. We maintain our OW(V) ratings on
Hysan and GE, as both are trading at deep NAV discounts of
47% and 55%, respectively. While our NAV for Hysan is on
the high side vs. consensus, we see room for street NAV
upgrades on completion of the Hennessy Centre redevelopment
and strong rental performance at Grand Gateway. Also
benefiting from potential NAV growth, GE’s hotel assets are
likely to be revalued as revenue per available room (revpar)
continues to improve. We are also OW(V) on C-REIT owing
to an attractive DPU yield of 7.1%, and remain N(V) on
HKL given our modest 2010 rent outlook for Central.
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