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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月南美农业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：47
【目录或简介】：
Increasing price targets and upgrading SLC to OW
from EW and BrasilAgro to EW from UW, based on
land value and underperformance of both companies.
We are changing our SLC PT to R$20.3/share from
R$19.4/share, and BrasilAgro to R$10.7/share from
R$6.8/share.
We are getting close to the bottom of the cycle,
which is the entry point for the sector. We believe the
next 1-2 quarters will still be weak but will be followed by
a significant recovery. We remain long-term bullish on
soft commodities, expecting soybean at US$12/bu,
cotton at US¢94/lb and corn at US$6/bu in 2012-13e,
based on our proprietary work on Mato Grosso’s
marginal cost of production – the last relevant player in
the Brazilian cost curve and 7% of the world soybean
production.
Land value is becoming more important to farming
stock prices: we have done new work to determine
Deloitte appraisals accuracy using FNP prices.
Companies are trading with 32% discount vs. liquidation
value and we see scope for that discount to narrow or
disappear once both companies start rotating land and
hidden value becomes unlocked.
Farming value creation is about land
transformation: Land prices have consistently
appreciated in Brazil over the last 15 years, but we are
less bullish about the future, and believe companies will
have to create value through transformation. We
analyze competitive advantages in farming and land
models and prefer SLC over BrasilAgro for being a more
efficient and consolidated player.
We recommend SLC: One of the most efficient farmers
in Brazil, with a below-average cost of production. Good
track record: finding the right soil is the key to assuring
returns, and SLC Agricola has been doing this for 40
years. Decent upside: Recent underperformance, down
15% vs. Bovespa in Feb, creates a clear entry point.
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