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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月英国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：100
【目录或简介】：
We initiate on 10 additional SMidcap Property stocks in the UK and see an
average 12m total return of 22% vs. 16% for the overall UK Property sector
(21 stocks covered). We also change our price targets for 6 stocks (see Table
10). While we are under no illusion that the sector will jump sharply (given
the lengthy deleveraging process that is still upon us), we do believe the UK
SMidcap universe looks attractive for six reasons:
• 1. Deep value plays available that offer an average total return of around
40%: Big Yellow, Grainger and Local Shopping REIT.
• 2. High quality management teams with ability to add ‘icing to the
cake’. We currently prefer Derwent London, Great Portland and Helical
Bar, for which we see a 12m total return of around 18%.
• 3. Forgotten names, like Songbird (which owns 69% of Canary Wharf
Group), and offer 20% total return.
• 4. Interesting differentiating business models with different lease and
debt profiles. Preferred recovery plays: Big Yellow and Workspace,
while Songbird (via CWG) has longest lease length.
• 5. Room for (recurring) earnings improvement, as we believe stocks
should be able to raise earnings: increase fee income (Unite), further
improve the company structure (Songbird), fill vacancy (Big Yellow) or
reduce (relative) overhead costs (Local Shopping REIT).
• 6. Continued occupational improvement in London and confident
management teams (that make us feel comfortable on valuation).
Initiations: Development Secs (UW), DTZ (UW), Grainger (OW), Helical Bar
(OW), Local Shopping REIT (OW), Quintain (N), Sirius RE (N), Songbird
Estate (OW), St. Modwen Pr. (OW), Workspace Group (OW).
New conference calls series VIII, starting on 9 April with John Burns (CEO
Derwent London), followed by Peter Cole (CIO Hammerson), Ian Coull (CEO
SEGRO) and Mike Hussey (MD Almacantar).
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