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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月亚太地产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
Global systemic stress and policy risks: a short-term phenomenon:
Fears of a fall-out from the Euro area fiscal crisis coincided with
policy tightening to drive risk aversion to levels last felt in early 2008.
The FTSE EPRA NAREIT Asia index has underperformed the global
real estate index and the MSCI Asia Pacific index by 4% YTD, but we
note that, as in early 2008, specific policy pressure on the property
sector and global systemic stress do not usually remain present
concurrently for any length of time. A shift in the policy-makers’ focus
away from countering property price bubbles towards the prospect of a
shock to global growth could help reduce the policy overhang on the
sector over time.
• Stocks have factored in an adverse outcome already, but stock
valuations should become compelling once (1) share prices reflect
physical property prices exclusive of froth built up over the last 12
months, and/or (2) NAV discounts are sufficiently wide enough to
provide medium-to-long-term investors with a suitable margin of
safety. The sector is trading at a 23% discount to NAV estimates (2008
trough: 35%) which are in turn 48% higher than the 2008 trough. We
believe a suitable re-entry point will emerge 10% lower than here on
the FTSE EPRA NAREIT Asia index (30% discount to current NAV).
• Remain underweight in China for now, overweight in India: We
prefer Indian property developers to the Chinese homebuilders, with
the former having underperformed since Sep 09, and the India property
sector not being as specifically targeted with measures by the policymakers
as has the China property sector. We note the Indian property
stocks are trading at 1.4x prospective book value, compared with China
homebuilders trading at 1.7x book value. Our top pick among the India
developers is DLF.
• We keep Hong Kong property overweight in our regional real
estate model portfolio, and Philippines and Indonesia are the preferred
countries amongst the emerging real estate markets in Asia. Our top
picks in the Philippines and Indonesia are Ayala Land and Ciputra
Development.
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