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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月巴西证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
1. What’s new? 4
2. Top Trade Ideas 5
3. Equity Strategy 6
4. Equity Guide 35
5. Fixed Income & Foreign Exchange Rate Strategy 44
6. Economics 49
What’s new?
Equity Strategy
We continue to recommend investors add risk to their portfolios after the recent market rebound. Our yearend
target for the local BOVESPA index remains 85k points (+28% USD upside);
However, there are important asset allocation changes at the sector level:
– Commodities vs domestics: we expect commodity stocks to continue to do well over the next 3 months
on the back of positive job creation in the US. Consequently, we continue to rotate towards and we are
now O/W commodities with a preference for mining, steel and energy stocks;
– Defensive vs growth: the short-term outlook for domestic oriented firms in Brazil is complicated because
of higher interest rates or a potential monetary policy mistake (no hikes because of the Presidential
election). Consequently, we have started to shift towards the defensive health care and financial sectors
in Brazil while we still like consumer discretionary in Mexico and Chile;
We introduce a model to track consensus estimates. Street consensus has 2010 and 2011 USD EPS
growth for Brazil pegged at +23% and +19% after back-to-back months of positive revisions. A breakdown
per sector shows materials and financials accounting for the lion’s share of growth.
Fixed Income and FX Strategy
The market has been front-loading the hikes into the 2010 period but without increasing the total amount of
hikes, which consensus indicates 275bp versus 375bp implied by the market;
BRL has begun to perform, undoing much of the weakness it had amassed YTD in the last two weeks.
Economics
We have recently revised our 2010 GDP growth forecast for Brazil from +4.8% to +5.8%. However, our
2011 estimate remains unchanged at +4.0%.
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