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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：建银国际
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：69
【目录或简介】：
Increase portfolio beta
The cautious investment sentiment dominating in 1Q10 in Hong Kong and
China should improve in 2Q10 as the market realizes that concerns over
inflation and liquidity tightening are overdone. Strong corporate earnings
growth and continued low interest rate environment will precipitate an
improvement in the stock market. Investors should overweight equity
investment with preference for high beta stocks to improve portfolio returns.
Thematic drivers for 2Q10 may be the rising but mild inflationary
pressure, RMB currency appreciation and government policy changes,
e.g. state-owned enterprises (SOE) re-organisation. Thus, corporations
which have higher pricing power in the inflationary environment or excess
assets over liabilities in RMB terms may benefit and outperform in 2Q10.
Leading SOE groups in aviation or coal mining industry may also outperform.
Overweight banking, insurance, consumer discretionary, basic
materials and Internet sectors in China. The widening net interest margins
for banks, and the rising domestic spending will lead to higher revenues and
corporate earnings growth. The inflationary environment may also result in
higher potential for earnings ungrade. We recommend investors to
accumulate China CITIC Bank (998 HK), China Taiping Insurance (966 HK),
Belle (1880 HK), Gome (493 HK), China National Building Material (3323
HK), and Tencent (700 HK).
Falling real interest rates and robust market demand will boost investment
interest in the undervalued property plays in both Hong Kong and China
markets. Maintain Overweight. SHK Properties (16 HK), Sino Land (83
HK), Glorious Property (845 HK), and Minmetals Land (230 HK) are our
preference.
Upgrade China’s telecom and shipping sectors to Neutral as their
“cheap” valuations in price-to-book terms attract risk-averse investors when
market sentiment recovers. We maintain Neutral for the energy sector,
seeing large-cap oil stocks to move in line with the market, but favour smaller
alternative energy plays or coal stocks, such as Solargiga (757 HK) and
Yanzhou Coal (1171 HK).
Infrastructure, utilities, consumer staples, bonds or cash are likely to
underperform in this inflationary environment, especially when the risk
appetite will escalate. Hong Kong banks seeing little prospects for
expansion in NIM will underperform their Chinese peers. Underweight.
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