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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月亚洲海运行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
Rates taking only a short-term breather
Balanced industry fundamentals
Strong demand, driven by global steel consumption, is unlikely to surprise the
market, while we reckon China’s high iron ore inventory is not a concern, given that
the inventory is less than one month’s steel consumption in China. The key
concern is the large orderbook, but we argue the newbuilding delivery slippage is
likely to worsen, given shipyard execution problems (already 50% slippage in
1QFY10). We forecast balanced demand-supply fundamentals, but this could
swing in favour of demand as port congestion worsens. This looks possible given
that steel demand from Europe and the US, as well as from China, is rebounding.
Rates set to rebound
We believe that BDI has taken a near-term breather due to weak capesize rates.
Iron ore contract negotiation gamesmanship has seen China shift away from
importing Australia and Brazil iron ore. However, we believe that this is only
temporary, and expect returning demand to drive underperforming capesize rates
higher. In fact, this demand could see port congestion worsening, resulting in our
freight rate forecasts being too conservative. The year-to-date average and current
BDI are at roughly 3,000 — we are forecasting a full-year average of 3,436.
Reiterate Bullish view, with only one REDUCE
We lower our BDI forecast to 3,436 (from 3,938) to reflect the lower BDI year to
date, which has led us to tweak price targets lower, but the sector remains
profitable. More importantly, we expect freight rates to rebound, driving share-price
performance. We reaffirm our Bullish sector view and BUY calls on CSD, Pacific
Basin, Sinotrans Shipping, STX Pan Ocean and Thoresen Thai. We lower Sincere
Navigation to REDUCE on its low exposure to the spot market.
Upcoming catalysts
Catalysts: the next round of quarterly iron ore contract negotiations and further
newbuilding orders reflecting the market bottoming. Risks: global economic growth
slowdown, slowing newbuilding deliveries slippage, and weaker freight rates.
Contents
Key changes, stock rationale and upcoming catalysts 3
Demand and supply revisions 4
Sector already profitable 6
Rates taking a breather but be prepared for rebound 6
Market concerns and mitigating factors 7
Valuation — sector profitable but trading below mid-cycle 9
Valuation table 10
Sensitivities – Korea Line most leveraged 11
Asian dry bulk shipping valuation charts 12
Strong demand and port congestion 14
Demand – steel production set to rebound 15
Supply – focus on delays and cancellations 19
Freight rates – already at profitable levels 21
Valuation and risks 22
Valuation methodology 22
Investment risks 23
Latest company views
China COSCO 24
China Shipping Development 28
Korea Line 32
Pacific Basin 36
Precious Shipping 40
Sincere Navigation 44
Sinotrans Shipping 48
STX Pan Ocean 52
Thoresen Thai 56
U-Ming Marine 60
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