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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国服装和鞋类行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：101
【目录或简介】：
Favor Vendors over Retailers: We are adding six
names in the footwear and athletic apparel space to our
coverage universe and maintaining an overall In-Line
industry view. We prefer the vendor names to the
retailers over the next 12-18 months and believe
inventory restocking, favorable market share shifts, or
supply chain efficiencies drive stronger risk/rewards for
the vendors. We are adding NKE to our Overweights (in
addition to PVH and JNY). Street expectations are
overly optimistic for the athletic footwear retailers and
we believe structural challenges and share losses are
underestimated. We rate FL and FINL Underweight.
NKE’s Margins Can Reach New Peaks: Street
sentiment on NKE has hit multi-year lows and we
believe the stock is pricing in an overly conservative
scenario of peak margins in F11. Our math indicates
vendor consolidation, lean manufacturing, tighter
endorsement spending, and international mix shifts can
drive NKE’s operating margins to new highs (>15%) in
the next 4-5 years. Furthermore, the full benefits of
vendor consolidation (NKE’s newest margin initiative)
will not be seen until F11 and we estimate a 55 bps and
$0.17 margin and EPS benefit is not in Street numbers.
Challenges Ahead for Athletic Footwear Retailers:
Our new proprietary Apparel & Footwear Lead Indicator
implies category sales will be flat in ‘10 and we estimate
the internet could take 210 bps of market share away
from footwear retailers from ‘08-‘10. We believe it will be
difficult for FL or FINL to achieve the 34% and 15% EPS
growth rates currently discounted in the stocks and high
store overlaps, exposure to weak US malls, and share
losses to the internet/sporting goods retailers put the
Street’s 2010 EPS outlooks at risk. We are currently
17% and 6% below consensus for FL and FINL.
Still In-Line: On average, we believe the consensus
EPS growth estimate of 16% for the group is achievable
thanks to restocking, market share gains, supply chain
efficiencies, and greater demand stabilization. Despite
peak levels in the earnings revision cycle in December,
we believe an improving sales trend from (5)% in ‘09 to
flat in ‘10 can keep our stocks performing in-line.
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