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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球电缆行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：114
【目录或简介】：
2009-2010: the trough
While we estimate that the global cable and wire
market was down 7% in 2009 (refer p 9) with a low
point forecast in H1 2010, we expect a global recovery
next year for this sector. However, the valuations of
the various competitors already seem to be factoring in
a rebound in H2 2010. So, except maybe for Nexans,
Prysmian and Finolex current 2010e multiples (see p
2) are more or less in line with the ones seen coming
out of the previous downturn (i.e. EV/EBIT of 11-13
x; PE of 14-16 x). Looking at the valuations for 2011,
some companies (e.g. Nexans, Prysmian) still offer
upside potential if we consider the multiples likely to
be reached mid-cycle with normalised margins, ie
EV/EBIT of 7-9x; PE of 10-12x.
Consolidation to continue
The sheer number of players (over 1,000 cable-making
companies worldwide) and the widely-acknowledged
geographical dispersion (North America 18%, Europe
26%, Asia 13%, Rest of the World 43%) cry out for
some sector streamlining. Consolidation is thus bound
to continue, in our view. The current recession could
add fuel to that trend, as certain companies may
encounter problems in the coming quarters if the
market continues to fall, forcing them into tie-ups. We
look at five key factors when analysing possible M&A
activity: 1/ favourable balance sheet position, 2/
expansion-seeking shareholders, 3/ capacity for
integrating targets, 4/ strategic fit of acquisitions (from
an industrial standpoint, market share acquisition,
technological development), and 5/ mutual benefits
from the combination.
And the winners are…
Based on the conclusions of the present study - which
includes a review of the entire sector, a look at the
industry’s various growth vectors, an analysis of
competition in the field and, lastly, evaluation of the
different companies under HSBC coverage, as well as a
recap — in the appendix — of the main competitors -
we have established the company rankings shown
below. After analysing six criteria (balance sheet
structure, geographical diversity, breadth of product
portfolio, management quality, potential for structural
margin improvement and strategy), we identify two
undervalued winners — Nexans (NEX FP, OW (V), TP
EUR70) and Prysmian (PRY MI, OW (V), TP EUR17).
In the first instance, we believe Nexans is making the
right moves to generate growth and profitability given
its geographical mix, the decision to refocus on the core
business model and the ability of its management
(namely Frederic Vincent – CEO) to streamline the
organisation. Furthermore, Nexans has the financial
capacity to consolidate the sector. For Prysmian, the
story is also attractive, if we bear in mind its business
mix and the positioning of its portfolio. Having
benefited from the recession to improve its profitability
vs competitors, Prysmian should also be in a position to
diversify its geographical presence in the years ahead.
All in all, both companies are likely to take advantage
of the current turmoil to expand their sector leadership.
Furthermore, looking at valuation, the chart below
clearly highlights that based on EV/EBIT multiples (the
most accurate in our view for comparing peers), Nexans
and Prysmian are relatively undervalued, a situation that
we expect to be rectified over the coming quarters.
Cable and wire industry 8
Growth drivers 18
Competitive landscape 33
Company Profiles 43
Draka 44
El Sewedy Cables 53
Finolex Cables 56
Havells India 60
Leoni 66
Middle East Specialized Cables Co. 71
Nexans 76
Prysmian 82
Saudi Cable Company 95
Appendices 100
General Cable 101
Hitachi Cable 103
LS Cable 105
NKT Holdings 107
Disclosure appendix 110
Disclaimer 113
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