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虽然大家对Soros褒贬不一，但作为对大师的尊敬，为了学习，特把收集的资料与大家分享。其实Soros也只是个普通人，把他从神的位置上请下来，看得更清楚一些。很多人对他并不了解，所以每次提起他只会提起当年狙击英镑的事迹，其实那只是他起起落落的投资生涯里一个插曲，至多算是一个里程碑。
mountainwisdoms.blogspot.com/search/label/Soros


国内的朋友可能用不了blogger, 所以将逐步在这个专栏下转载。祝各位努力，成功。

April 15, 2010

Markets could be derailed again, warns Soros
APR 14, 2010 07:11 EDT
CREDIT CRISIS | ECONOMIST | GEORGE SOROS | MODERN ECONOMICS
Railway porter-turned-billionaire financier George Soros delivered a stark warning last night that the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis.

The man who ‘broke’ the Bank of England (and who is still able to earn a cool $3.3 bln in a year) said the same strategy of borrowing and spending that had got us out of the Asian crisis could shunt us towards another crisis unless tough lessons are learned.

Soros, who worked as a porter to pay for his studies at the London School of Economics after emigrating from Hungary, warned us to heed the lesson that modern economics had got it wrong and that markets are not inherently stable.

“The success in bailing out the system on the previous occasion led to a superbubble, except that in 2008 we used the same methods,” he told a meeting hosted by The Economist at the City of London’s modern and impressive Haberdashers’ Hall.

“Unless we learn the lessons, that markets are inherently unstable and that stability needs to the objective of public policy, we are facing a yet larger bubble.

“We have added to the leverage by replacing private credit with sovereign credit and increasing national debt by a significant amount.”

One crumb of comfort could be the 10-year period between the 1998 Asian crisis and the 2008 credit crisis. If the pattern is repeated, it should at least mean we have another 8 years to go before the next crash…
at 1:06 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Credit Crisis, Recovery, Soros
Soros Says Risk of Greek ‘Death Spiral’ Remains (Update2)
By Gabi Thesing

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Greece still faces the danger of a “death spiral” because the cost of borrowing in the euro region’s rescue package is too expensive, billionaire investor George Soros said.

“While it’s better than what the market is currently willing to offer, it’s still rather high,” Soros said at an event in London late yesterday organized by the Economist magazine. “It is a question of solvency. If you start charging very high rates as the market does in anticipation of solvency then that pushes you into insolvency.”

Euro region finance ministers on April 11 offered Greece a 30 billion-euro ($41 billion) aid package which would give it three-year loans at 5 percent if it can’t raise money in capital markets. Greece auctioned Treasury bills yesterday for the first time since the rescue bid, drawing more demand than at a previous sale.

“Concessional rates” of borrowing aid would help Greece “fulfill their target,” Soros said. “If they don’t, they have then to tighten even further, then your tax receipts go down and the economy goes further into tanking and then you go into a death spiral. That is the danger that is still remaining.”

Greek bonds fell for a second day today, pushing the yield on the country’s 2-year debt up 57 basis points to 6.9 percent as of 3:28 p.m. London time.

The extra yield investors demand to hold the country’s 2- year notes instead of German notes of equivalent maturity, rose 55 basis points to 568 basis points, according to generic Bloomberg prices.

“The argument for political will to bail out Greece” was that “the consequences of Greece leaving the euro would be the disintegration of the euro,” Soros said. “The disintegration of the euro would take a very long way toward the disintegration of the European Union.

Soros Fund Management LLC manages about $25 billion. Soros said yesterday that “I’m no longer running the fund.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Gabi Thesing in London at gthesing@bloomberg.net


Related Videos


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Soros on Greece
April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros speaks about Greece's debt crisis and the prospect of further tensions in the euro region. Soros, who spoke yesterday at an event in London organized by The Economist magazine, also discussed the U.S. government's bailout of banks, the performance of President Barack Obama and financial regulation. John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of The Economist moderates.

at 1:04 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Greece, Soros, Sovereign crisis
April 11, 2010

Soros Says Greece's Fiscal Crisis Is `Make or Break Time' for Euro Region
Soros Says Greece's Fiscal Crisis Is `Make or Break Time' for Euro Region Billionaire investor George Soros said the Greek debt crisis poses a test for European officials to prove they can hold the euro region together.


Soros Says Pound Devaluation Is Option for Next U.K. Government to Decide Billionaire investor George Soros said the next U.K. government after the May 6 election should decide whether to allow a further devaluation of the pound to rebalance the economy and assist the recovery.


Soros Says U.S. Has Probably Reached an Agreement With China on the Yuan Billionaire investor George Soros said China and the U.S. have probably come to an agreement on the yuan amid speculation the currency’s 21-month-old peg to the dollar may be scrapped.
at 12:38 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Currency, Global Macro, Soros, Sovereign crisis, UK
March 30, 2010

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关键词：Soros SOR ROS 索罗斯 Consequences Soros hedge funds

Paulson’s $32 Billion Funds Prompt Too-Big Concerns (Update1)
By Katherine Burton

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulsonstarted the year overseeing $32 billion in hedge funds, third in the world behind JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bridgewater Associates LP. Unlike many of his biggest rivals, he’s taking in new cash, raising the question of how much money is too much for a hedge-fund manager.
“There’s no doubt that Paulson is a big draw for investors at the moment,” saidRichard Tomlinson, founder of London-based Tomlinson Investment Consulting, which advises clients on hedge funds. “As with all managers that bulk up, there’s always the risk of returns becoming mediocre.”
Paulson & Co., the New York-based firm that the former Bear Stearns banker and Gruss Partners trader started in 1994, differs from many large competitors because it makes concentrated bets, such as the wager against subprime mortgages that helped generate $3 billion of profit in 2007. As assets increase, it can get harder for a fund to find investments big enough to drive returns and to trade without distorting prices.
Paulson’s main $19 billion Advantage funds, which primarily seek to profit on distressed debt, bankruptcies and mergers, have lagged behind peers this year and last after beating them in 2007 and 2008. Armel Leslie, a spokesman for Paulson, declined to comment.
Lessons of Tiger
The world’s largest hedge funds are approaching their previous peak assets after recovering from their worst-ever losses and investor outflows in 2008. They are benefiting from a shift by pension funds and endowments to established firms with steady returns and staff dedicated to risk management.
Fourteen firms managed $20 billion or more in hedge funds at the start of 2010, when industry assets stood at $1.6 trillion. Hedge funds oversaw a record $1.9 trillion in mid- 2008.
In 1998, only George Soros’s Soros Fund Management LLC and Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management LLC exceeded the $20 billion mark. Within two years of hitting that milestone, both firms had suffered big losses and decided to stop managing money for other investors.
“There is a point where you can be too big to generate returns,” saidLawrence P. Chiarello, a partner at Red Bank, New Jersey-based SkyView Investment Advisors LLC, which selects hedge funds for clients. “Being large and able to build a strong infrastructure are good things, but in general I think the pendulum has swung too far.”
The size at which a fund may become too big depends on factors such as its investment strategy and the markets in which it trades, Chiarello said.
Citadel’s Stumble
The industry is replete with examples of managers losing billions after they took increasingly bigger bets to produce top returns. Robertson’s fund was brought down in part by a 25 percent stake in US Airways Group Inc. and $2 billion of losses when the U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen.
In 2008, Chicago-based Citadel Investment Group LLC, whose assets had climbed to about $20 billion, lost 55 percent in its biggest funds after wagers on convertible, high-yield and investment-grade bonds hedged with credit-default swaps all went awry. It managed about $12 billion at Dec. 31.
Hany Shawky, a finance professor at the University of Albany-State University of New York, wrote a paper in 2008 that found that smaller funds outperform larger funds on an absolute basis. On a risk-adjusted basis, which takes into account the swings in returns, large funds were better. Shawky is working on an update to his study, which he said has found similar results.
Smaller Bets
While New York-based JPMorgan and Bridgewater of Westport, Connecticut, are larger than Paulson’s firm, they tend to make comparatively smaller bets.
JPMorgan manages about $33 billion in more than 50 funds in markets around the globe. The bank’s wholly owned Highbridge Capital Management LLC subsidiary manages an additional $11 billion in four funds.
Bridgewater manages its $43.6 billion in one strategy it calls Pure Alpha. The firm takes many small positions using futures to bet on stock indexes, bonds, currencies and commodities. Those markets are liquid, meaning that traders can get in and out of positions without moving prices dramatically.
Paulson tends to invest a lot in trends he has identified.
In 2007, before the housing market collapsed, he spent $2 billion buying credit-default swaps on subprime mortgages, a trade that soared when home loans went bad in record numbers. Today he has 10 percent to 15 percent of his Advantage funds in the shares of gold-mining companies on the expectation that prices of the metal will rise along with inflation.
Housing Score
The subprime wager paid off. The Advantage Plus fund, which uses leverage to amplify returns, jumped 160 percent in 2007 and 37 percent in 2008. Comparable funds gained an average of 6.6 percent in 2007 and fell 22 percent in 2008, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. The firm’s Credit Opportunities funds, which held the biggest chunk of Paulson’s subprime trade, were up 600 percent in 2007.
Paulson’s performance was more pedestrian in 2009. The Advantage Plus fund climbed 21 percent, compared with about 25 percent for peers. Through February 2010, it lost 1 percent, compared with a gain of 1 percent for similar funds.
Even as performance trailed peers last year, the Advantage funds increased the amount of borrowed money they used. In June, the funds had borrowed 34 cents for every dollar of net assets, according to a presentation Paulson made at a Merrill Lynch & Co. investor conference in February. The level climbed to 50 cents for every dollar by December.
Some Paulson investors say they aren’t concerned that he’s gotten too big.
Bigger Not Bad
“For funds that invest in a number of strategies, size isn’t an issue,” said Brad Alford, head of Atlanta-based Alpha Capital Management LLC, which picks hedge funds for clients and is a Paulson investor. “Bigger funds produce more in revenue, so they can hire the best talent and build the most robust infrastructure.”
Paulson, 54, started his hedge-fund career 16 years ago with a fund that focused on merger arbitrage. In 2004, when he was managing $3 billion, he began expanding, adding the first Advantage fund. He opened his first credit fund in 2006. At the end of 2008, he started the Recovery Fund, now $1.7 billion, to bet on companies like Citigroup Inc., Conseco Inc. and Bank of America Corp. as they rebounded from the financial-services meltdown.
This year he launched a $350 million gold fund and a real estate fund that is buying property at distressed prices.
At the Merrill Lynch investor conference, Paulson defended the size of his firm as he closes in on the $36 billion in assets he reached in 2008.
Marketing Continues
“Paulson funds tiny relative to market opportunities,” was the title of one slide. It compared the $6.9 billion Credit funds to the markets for distressed mortgages, high-yield bonds and leveraged loans, saying each are more than $1 trillion.
Paulson continues to market his funds because he sees opportunities in the next 18 months to 24 months as companies restructure their debt, said Charles Krusen, head of New York- based Krusen Capital Management LLC and a Paulson investor.
The unleveraged version of the Advantage fund is targeting returns of 12 percent to 15 percent, he said.
“We think they’ll be able to do that,” said Krusen, adding that Paulson has closed his credit and merger-arbitrage funds before when he was concerned their size might hinder performance.
Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, Europe’s largest hedge- fund firm, closed its $2 billion Asia Fund and $2.5 billion Emerging Market Strategies Fund to new investors last November, and is limiting inflows into its $21.3 billion Brevan Howard Master Fund Ltd.
Tudor, Shumway
Paul Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp. has stopped taking money into its $9.5 billion BVI Global Fund Ltd. Jones also returned some of 2009 profits in the Greenwich, Connecticut- based fund to clients this year as another way to cap assets.
Chris Shumway, who runs Greenwich, Connecticut-based Shumway Capital Partners LLC, a stock hedge fund, isn’t accepting more money after reaching $8 billion. New York-based King Street Capital Management LP, a credit fund, told investors it would “moderate” growth now that it has more than $20 billion, according to a letter sent to investors.
“Three of our core managers have closed to new investments,” said Stewart Massey, who runs Massey Quick & Co., a consulting firm in Morristown, New Jersey, that caters to wealthy individuals, endowments and foundations. “We love to see that. What they are saying is, ‘I’m running this for performance, not scale.’ ”

March 24, 2010

Moore Capital, Deutsche Bank, Exane Workers Probed by U.K. in Insider Case
Australian Wealth Fund Ends Talks With Canadian Pensions on Transurban Bid Australia’s sovereign wealth fund terminated talks with two Canadian pension funds on joining a A$6.8 billion ($6.25 billion) bid for Transurban Group, sending shares of the toll-road owner tumbling in Sydney trading.
Soros Fund Management Buys $38 Million in Lehman Claims From Goldman Sachs Soros Fund Management LLC bought $38 million in claims on bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., according to court filings today.
Elliott, Paulson Are Said to Weigh Investment in General Growth Properties Elliott Associates LP and Paulson & Co. are discussing a plan to team with Brookfield Asset Management Inc. to bring mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. out of bankruptcy, two people familiar with the talks said.
Tennenbaum Capital Said to Seek $1 Billion for Fund to Buy Distressed Debt Tennenbaum Capital Partners LLC, an investment firm founded by Michael Tennenbaum, is seeking about $1 billion to buy distressed debt after starting a bankruptcy- loan fund, said two people with knowledge of the plans.
Dai-ichi Raises $11 Billion in World's Biggest IPO Since Visa Sale in 2008 Dai-ichi Mutual Life Insurance Co. will raise 1.01 trillion yen ($11 billion) in the world’s biggest initial public offering in two years after pricing the IPO at the middle of its forecast range.
Moore Capital, Deutsche Bank, Exane Workers Probed by U.K. in Insider Case Two senior professionals at “leading” London financial firms and a hedge-fund employee were arrested as part of Britain’s financial regulator’s largest operation to crack down on insider trading.
Rich Clients Pumped for Fees in Private Banking's `Conflict of Interest' After Steffen Binder and his partners sold a Frankfurt-based Internet research firm for $15 million in September 2000, he invested his share of the windfall with private banks. As the dot-com bubble burst, his holdings shrank faster and then rose more slowly than the market.
Madoff Victims Appeal Ruling on Picard's Method for Paying Fraud Claims Former customers of Bernard Madoff, who conducted the biggest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history, have appealed a judge’s decision that lets the liquidator of Madoff’s business reject years’ worth of fake profit from the fraud when calculating victims’ claims for repayment.
Covered Bonds Rise Most Since '06 Signaling Europe Rebound: Credit Markets Europe’s banks are selling covered bonds at the fastest pace in four years in a sign that debt investors are betting Europe’s economy is strong enough to weather the budget crisis in Greece.
at 1:50 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Distressed, Insider Trading, Soros

March 03, 2010

Soros, Paulson Hedge Fund to be Investigated for Bets Made on Demise of the Euro
WallStreetPit.com, March 3, 2010

The U.S. Justice Department has launched an investigation into whether heavyweight hedge funds including Soros Fund Management, SAC, Greenlight Capital and Paulson & Co. aggressively shorted the euro in recent weeks to destabilise it, the WSJ reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the paper, the department has asked hedge funds to retain trading records and electronic communications relating to the EU currency which needless to say has come under strong selling pressure as a result of the Greek debt crisis. The euro has lost more than 10% since November. It currently trades at $1.3609.

The Journal article disclosed that the big euro bets — some observers estimate that traders and hedge funds have bet nearly $8 billion against the euro — were emerging amid gatherings including an “idea dinner” involving a number of hedge funds, where a trader argued that the euro is likely to fall to “parity,” or equal to, against the dollar on an exchange basis (very low interest rates have made the funding of massive block trades more feasible.)

At one such gathering, a dinner on Feb. 8 at a Manhattan restaurant, an SAC portfolio manager, notes the Journal, said he believed the euro will continue bleeding and urged other traders to short it as his firm had, according to people at the dinner. The size of the bets against the euro is unclear.

One of the questions investigators will most likely examine at this point is whether such information-sharing amounts to ‘collusion’, which implies that a secret agreement between the parties involved was made in order to undermine the currency. However, the Journal points out that charges relating to collusion on Wall Street have been a rarity because of the difficulty of proving that firms intentionally sought to act together and acted nefariously.

The reported Justice Department probe comes at a time when financial institutions are facing scrutiny over their role in the Greek financial crisis.

Critics accuse Wall Street firms of exacerbating the crisis by helping European governments mask their debts through derivatives deals from the budget overseers in Brussels to only benefit later from them by driving down the value of securities related to them. Moves that are reminiscent of the trading action at the height of the financial crisis like bets against Lehman Brothers and other troubled firms.
at 10:32 PM 0 comments   
Labels: Currency, Hedge Funds, John Paulson, SAC, Soros

March 02, 2010

Soros Signals Gold Bubble as Momentary Buyer While Goldman Predicts Record
Soros Signals Gold Bubble as Momentary Buyer While Goldman Predicts Record George Soros is helping drive up gold prices by doubling his bet in a market even he considers a “bubble” as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc predict more gains before it bursts.
American Funds Ranked First by Morningstar for Wealth Creation, Janus Last American Funds, the biggest active manager of stock and bond mutual funds, created the most wealth for investors in the past decade, while Janus Capital Group Inc. destroyed the most, Morningstar Inc. said today.
VIX Tracking Junk Bonds Proves to PNC Gains for S&P 500 as Pimco Says Not! Just when U.S. consumer confidence is dropping and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says the economy is too fragile to raise interest rates, the options market shows investing in stocks is getting safer.
Pimco's Gross Says Sovereign Debt Returns Will Resemble Corporate Yields Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said government bailouts suggest a global “unicredit” type of bond market where rates on sovereign debt will resemble the yields of corporations and industries they guarantee.
Buffett Cancels Geico Credit-Card `Fiasco' With Loss of 45 Cents on Dollar Billionaire Warren Buffett shut a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. credit-card business and sold bad loans at 55 cents on the dollar in what he called a “very expensive business fiasco.”
Greece Loses Kokusai's Investment as Bondholders Demand 7% From Next Sale Petros Christodoulou, the new head of Greece’s government debt agency, faces a dwindling investor base as the country prepares to sell bonds as soon as this week.
Prudential CEO Thiam Makes Biggest Bet of Career With Record Asia Purchase Prudential Plc Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam knows about taking risks.
Greece Now, U.K. Next as Scots Investors Ready for 20-30% Plunge in Pound While the eyes of the world focus on Greece’s debt crisis, investors in Edinburgh are busy preparing for the U.K. to be next.
Norway Gives Approval for Its Wealth Fund to Buy Up to 5% in Real Estate Norway gave approval for its $440 billion sovereign wealth fund to invest as much as 5 percent of its value in real estate to increase returns and limit overall risk after record losses in 2008.
at 3:27 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Soros, Sovereign debt, Warren Buffett
Soros Disappointed In Obama's Job Performance
Billionaire investor George Soros, who helped U.S. President Barack Obama raise money for his presidential campaign in 2008, on Sunday said he wasn't happy with Mr. Obama's handling of the financial crisis.

Mr. Soros said the government should have taken over U.S. banks instead of bailing them out, a move he suggested would have been more popular with Americans.

'The solution that he found to the financial crisis, which was to effectively bail out the banks and allow them to earn their way out of the hole, was, in my opinion, not the right solution,' Mr. Soros said in an interview with CNN. 'He should have compulsorily replaced the capital that was lost.'

(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)

After taking office at the start of 2009, Mr. Obama stuck to plans implemented by his predecessor George W. Bush to rescue banks by buying toxic assets from them and injecting capital into struggling lenders. As the financial sector recovered, the Obama administration put banks through stress tests to determine how much new capital they would need to withstand a severe recession, but steered clear of nationalizing them.

Mr. Soros said China took a better approach to dealing with the financial crisis by forcing its banks to increase their minimum capital requirements. He suggested that Beijing has in recent years been more successful in its handling of economic policy than the U.S.

He said the 'market fundamentalist' belief prevailing in the U.S. that markets correct their own excesses was wrong, and criticized former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan for taking that line. Mr. Soros--who as chairman of Soros Fund Management, said he manages about $27 billion in assets--cited his own investment decisions as an example.

'When I see a bubble, I buy that bubble, because that's how I make money,' he said.

Mr. Soros doubled his bet on gold at the end of 2009 as prices for the metal rose, a filing showed in February, a few weeks after Mr. Soros called gold the new asset bubble.

Mr. Soros said the U.S. and China needed to work closely to manage the global economy, calling recent signs of bilateral tension worrying. The two countries disagreed over how to tackle global warming during a meeting in Copenhagen recently, and have faced off over trade and currency issues. Mr. Obama met with Tibet's exiled spiritual leader the Dalai Lama of Tibet in the White House this month, despite official protests from China.

'Unless we stop it in the next few months, I think that we could yet fall back into a situation that prevailed in the 1930s, where each country is for itself,' Mr. Soros said. He said trade protectionism was his top concern, in terms of the global economy's outlook.

Turning to Europe, Mr. Soros said worries about Greece's debt had exposed a flaw in the euro's construction, namely that the 15 euro zone countries, which share a single currency, had a common central bank but not a common Treasury.

'Either Europe now takes the institutional measures that are needed to make up for the deficiency or, in fact, it may not survive,' said Mr. Soros. Soros Fund Management is one of several heavyweight hedge funds that are betting that the Greek-debt woes will push the euro lower.

Luca Di Leo
at 2:20 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Currency, Europe, Gold, Soros

February 21, 2010

George Soros: The euro will face bigger tests than Greece
The euro will face bigger tests than Greece
By George Soros
Published: February 21 2010 18:40 | Last updated: February 21 2010 18:46
Otmar Issing, one of the fathers of the euro, correctly states the principle on which the single currency was founded. As he wrote in the FT last week, the euro was meant to be a monetary union but not a political one. Participating states established a common central bank but refused to surrender the right to tax their citizens to a common authority. This principle was enshrined in the Maastricht treaty and has since been rigorously interpreted by the German constitutional court. The euro was a unique and unusual construction whose viability is now being tested.

The construction is patently flawed. A fully fledged currency requires both a central bank and a Treasury. The Treasury need not be used to tax citizens on an everyday basis but it needs to be available in times of crisis. When the financial system is in danger of collapsing, the central bank can provide liquidity, but only a Treasury can deal with problems of solvency. This is a well-known fact that should have been clear to everyone involved in the creation of the euro. Mr Issing admits that he was among those who believed that “starting monetary union without having established a political union was putting the cart before the horse”.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa: Europe cannot afford to let Athens stand alone - Feb-18

Otmar Issing: Europe must not rescue Greece - Feb-15

Samuel Brittan: Greek light on an over-hasty project - Feb-18

In depth: Greece debt crisis - Feb-16

The European Union was brought into existence by putting the cart before the horse: setting limited but politically attainable targets and timetables, knowing full well that they would not be sufficient and require further steps in due course. But for various reasons the process gradually ground to a halt. The EU is now largely frozen in its present shape.

The same applies to the euro. The crash of 2008 revealed the flaw in its construction when members had to rescue their banking systems independently. The Greek debt crisis brought matters to a climax. If member countries cannot take the next steps forward, the euro may fall apart.

The original construction of the euro postulated that members would abide by the limits set by Maastricht. But previous Greek governments egregiously violated those limits. The government of George Papandreou, elected last October with a mandate to clean house, revealed that the budget deficit reached 12.7 per cent in 2009, shocking both the European authorities and the markets.

The European authorities accepted a plan that would reduce the deficit gradually with a first instalment of 4 per cent, but markets were not reassured. The risk premium on Greek government bonds continues to hover around 3 per cent, depriving Greece of much of the benefit of euro membership. If this continues, there is a real danger that Greece may not be able to extricate itself from its predicament whatever it does. Further budget cuts would further depress economic activity, reducing tax revenues and worsening the debt-to-GNP ratio. Given that danger, the risk premium will not revert to its previous level in the absence of outside assistance.

The situation is aggravated by the market in credit default swaps, which is biased in favour of those who speculate on failure. Being long CDS, the risk automatically declines if they are wrong. This is the opposite of selling short stocks, where being wrong the risk automatically increases. Speculation in CDS may drive the risk premium higher.

Recognising the need, the last Ecofin meeting of EU finance ministers for the first time committed itself “to safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole”. But they have not yet found a mechanism for doing it because the present institutional arrangements do not provide one – although Article 123 of the Lisbon treaty establishes a legal basis for it. The most effective solution would be to issue jointly and severally guaranteed eurobonds to refinance, say, 75 per cent of the maturing debt as long as Greece meets its targets, leaving Athens to finance the rest of its needs as best it can. This would significantly reduce the cost of financing and it would be the equivalent of the International Monetary Fund disbursing conditional loans in tranches.

But this is politically impossible at present because Germany is adamantly opposed to serving as the deep pocket for its profligate partners. Therefore makeshift arrangements will have to be found.

The Papandreou government is determined to correct the abuses of the past and it enjoys remarkable public support. There have been mass protests and resistance from the old guard of the governing party, but the public seems ready to accept austerity as long as it sees progress in correcting budgetary abuses – and there are plenty of abuses to allow progress.

So makeshift assistance should be enough for Greece, but that leaves Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Together they constitute too large a portion of euroland to be helped in this way. The survival of Greece would still leave the future of the euro in question. Even if it handles the current crisis, what about the next one? It is clear what is needed: more intrusive monitoring and institutional arrangements for conditional assistance. A well-organised eurobond market would be desirable. The question is whether the political will for these steps can be generated.

The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management and author of the Soros Lectures, published by PublicAffairs this month
at 7:16 PM 0 comments   
Labels: EUR/USD, Europe, Global Macro, Soros
February 14, 2010

索罗斯演讲：未来的路（中文译稿1/3）
乔治·索罗斯 2009-11-11


2009年10月，在持续一周的时间里，乔治·索罗斯 (George Soros)在位于匈牙利布达佩斯的中欧大学 (Central European University) 发表了共分五个部分的系列演讲，阐述了他对危机中的金融市场、政治体制和开放社会的思考与主张。在第五日的演讲“未来的路”中，他着重探讨了金融危机将如何重塑中国与世界的关系，以及由中国代表的“国家资本主义”模式的未来。
这次演讲的全部译稿由公开社会研究会(Open Society Institute)提供，对此我们表示感谢。以下为演讲第一部分。点击阅读：第二部分，第三部分，或观看视频。

我在这个系列讲座中提出了一个能够更好地理解人类行为和事件的理念结构。这些事件不是由永恒有效的自然法规决定的。当然这些法规的确存在，但不足以决定事件的发展过程。原因之一是情况的复杂性，另一个原因是事件参与者的思维所起的作用。

我已经集中讲了相关反身性(reflexivity)的问题，即当事者的思维与现实情况的双向关联，以及我所强调的错误理解和错误观念对现实情况形成的因果关系。但这两种影响都很奇怪地被忽视了。这些影响给事物加入了不确定因素，结果是除了非常简单的情况以外，几乎不可能预测未来。

但我们仍然可以大略估计几种情况，并评估其可能性，也可以提出希望得到的结果。我在这两方面都做过，而且是多次尝试。的确，我可以称为是专家，作为投资者，我专注于预测(prediction)；作为公益慈善家，主要是为解决问题开处方(prescription)。我前者做得成功，足以支持后者。今天的讲座我想从预测和开处方这两个方面来谈。


当下所处的时刻，不定因素的范围异常广泛。我们刚刚渡过了二次大战以来最严重的金融危机。这个危机在量上大得多，质上也与以往的危机很不相同。可作相关比较的，是1991年日本发生的房地产泡沫破灭，至今尚未恢复；还有就是30年代美国的大萧条。与日本情况不同的是，那次危机仅限于一个国家，而这次危机卷入了全世界。与大萧条不同的是，这次没有允许让金融体系垮台，而是给它上了人工生命维持器。

事实上，我们当今所面临的信贷和杠杆问题(credit and leverage problem) 的深度和广度比30年代要严重得多。1929年时美国的信贷余额(credit outstanding)是国内生产总值(GDP)的160%, 到1932年增长到250%； 而2008年初是365% – 这还不包括30年代时金融市场上尚未存在而如今广泛使用的衍生品(derivatives)。 但尽管如此，人工生命维持器居然奏效了。雷曼兄弟公司倒闭不到一年，金融市场已经稳定，股市也已回升，经济显示复苏迹象。人们想回到一切照旧的情况，把2008年的崩溃只当成是一个恶梦。

但我很遗憾地告诉大家，复苏的势头可能会停止，甚至随之出现 “再次衰退”(double dip)，而我不能确定的是这将发生在2010年还是2011年。

有这种观点的绝不止我一个人，但我的观点与目前的主导情绪不一样。复苏的时间越长，就会有更多的人相信复苏；但是据我的判断，这种主导情绪与实际情况相去甚远。这是典型的远非均衡的状况，此时人的感知往往落后于现实。更复杂的是，这种落后于现实是双向的。一方面，多数人还没有意识到这一次危机不同于以往 – 我们是处在一个时代的终点。另一方面，其他人包括我自己在内，未能预见到复苏反弹的程度。

混乱和困惑不只是在金融界，它延伸到整个国际舞台。

前苏盟帝国垮台后美国成了唯一的超级大国。没有其他大国或国家联盟可以挑战其至高无上的国力。但是这种“单极”(uni-polar) 的世界秩序未能持久。当布什总统为显示美国的威力，以不实之词为借口入侵伊拉克时，其效果与他的意图适得其反。美国的力量和影响力一落千丈，其结果是混乱的国际金融体系加之以不稳定的国际关系。此后终将形成的新的世界秩序，将不会再像以往那样的程度受美国的控制和左右。

为了理解正在发生的这些事，我们需要一个不同于以往所熟悉的那种理念框架。有效市场假定论把金融市场孤立看待，完全不考虑政治因素。这是一种曲解。像我已经多次提到过的，在市场的无形之手背后，有一个有形的政治之手，在制定市场运作的规则和条件。我的理念结构关系到政治经济学，而不是抽象概念的、受永恒有效规律主宰的市场经济学。我把金融市场看成是历史的一个分支。

二战后重建的国际金融体系并没有建立一个公平的竞争环境，其倾侧与不平衡是有意设计的。国际货币基金组织和世界银行这样的国际金融机构，是按控股公司的形式组建的，其中富国有不成比例的投票权并且控制其理事会。这使处于该体系边缘的国家比位于体系中心的国家处于劣势。


该体系从初建起就一直受美国控制。在布雷顿(Bretton Woods)会议上，尽管英国凯恩斯勋爵(Lord Keynes)提出了该体系的建议，但是是由美国代表团团长哈里. 怀特 (Harry White) 具体操作的。从那时起，我们从几乎全面监管的体系变成了几乎完全无监管的体系；这些变化由美国主导，而且所谓的 “华盛顿共识”(Washington Consensus) 仍在继续引导这个体系。

尽管由华盛顿共识制定的法规条例理应对所有国家平等适用，但美国作为主要国际货币的发行者，却比别人“更平等”。实际上国际金融体系是一个两个等级层次 (two-tier) 的架构：能用自己的货币借贷的国家是该体系的中心，而借贷要由硬通货之一来决定的国家是这个体系的外围。如果某个国家遇到困难，可以得到援助，但条件很苛刻，这对核心国家和外围国家都是一样的。但是如果核心本身受到了威胁，那么该体系的维存则成为第一位的优先考虑。

这种情况在1982年的国际银行业危机中第一次发生。如果债务国被允许拖欠付款，银行体系将崩溃。因此国际金融权威机构联手，采用了我当时称为的“合作出借体制(collective system of lending)”。借贷国不得不滚动延续贷款(roll over loans)，使债务国能得到足够借款支撑债务。最终结果是，债务国被推进严重衰退，拉丁美洲的发展因此被推迟十年，而银行体系得以赢利而摆脱困境。当银行建立了足够的储蓄时，这些贷款则被重新组合为所谓的布雷迪债券(Brady bonds)，其余的损失由银行销账。

1997年类似情况再度发生，但那时银行已经学会审查贷款, 不至被迫采取合作出借的做法，而绝大部分损失不得不由债务国承担。这样就建立了一个模式：债务国受制于严厉的市场戒律，但如果体系本身受到威胁，规则通常暂停执行。其整体失败将使该体系陷入危险的数家银行得到保释。

2007/2008年的金融危机与此不同，因为它起源于核心国，而外围国家是在雷曼兄弟公司破产后才被卷入。国际货币基金组织(IMF)面对的是一个新的任务 – 保护因核心国风暴而受影响的周边国。该组织没有足够的资金，但其成员国很快联合行动募集了一万亿美元。尽管如此，应对局面还有一定的困难，因为IMF的设立是为了应对政府部门的问题，而这时信贷的短缺主要影响的是私营领域。但总的来说，国际货币基金组织在承担这一新的任务上做的相当出色。

国际金融权威机构应对这次危机的做法，总体上与过去一样：救助将要垮台的金融机构，实行货币及财政刺激措施。但这次危机要大得多，用同样的办法起初没有奏效。对雷曼兄弟公司的救助失败，是一个具有转折意义的事件：金融市场实际上停止运转，不得不加上人工生命维持器。这意味着政府被迫实际上是在担保，不能让其他可能危及这个体系的机构再垮台。正是此时危机延伸到了周边国，因为这些国家无法提供同样有信誉的保证。这次东欧国家受创最重。处于核心地位的国家，用他们中央银行的资金平衡表给这个体系注入资本，为商业银行的债务进行担保，而且政府为刺激经济，赤字财政达到前所未有的规模。

这些措施已见成效，全球经济似乎在稳定下来。越来越多的人认为全球金融体系已再次免于崩溃，我们在逐渐回到一切照旧的状态。这是对目前形势的严重误解，已经破碎的不可能再拼回到一起。让我来解释为什么。

February 08, 2010


February 03, 2010

Morgan Stanley Evaluating Its Investments in Hedge Funds, CEO Gorman Says
Morgan Stanley Evaluating Its Investments in Hedge Funds, CEO Gorman Says Morgan Stanley is “evaluating” its investments in hedge funds including FrontPoint Partners LLC and London-based Lansdowne Partners LP, Chief Executive Officer James Gorman said today at an investor conference.
Volcker to Tell Senate Panel Hedge Funds Should Be Allowed to Profit, Fail Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker plans to tell the Senate Banking Committee today that hedge funds and private-equity funds should be allowed to both profit and fail, without any expectation of government support.
Fidelity Slashes Online Trading Commissions in Challenge to Charles Schwab Fidelity Investments reduced online commissions for stock transactions in the U.S. by 60 percent and waived trading fees on two dozen exchange-traded funds, in a bid to attract investors and challenge Charles Schwab Corp.
BNY Mellon Agrees to Acquire PNC's Global Investment Unit for $2.3 Billion Bank of New York Mellon Corp. agreed to buy PNC Financial Services Group Inc.’s global investment- servicing business for $2.31 billion to add hedge-fund and mutual-fund clients.
Galleon Prosecutors Gave Goffer Wiretap Recordings to SEC, Defense Claims Lawyers for Galleon Group LLC founder Raj Rajaratnam and ex-trader Zvi Goffer moved to block the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from using wiretap recordings obtained from prosecutors in the agency’s insider-trading suit.
Soros-Backed Venture Weighs IPO to Fund $700 Million Brazilian Sugar Mill Billionaire George Soros’s Adecoagro venture, which invests in agriculture and renewable energy in Latin America, is considering an initial public offering to help fund projects in Brazil that include a $700 million sugar mill.
CIC May Get $250 Billion Additional Cash This Month, Z-Ben Advisors Says China Investment Corp., the nation’s $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, may get at least $250 billion in extra funds before the Feb. 14 Chinese New Year, according to Z-Ben Advisors Ltd.
Apollo Forms Asia Property Fund Run by Ex-Colony Capital CEO Grant Kelley Apollo Global Management LLC, the buyout firm run by Leon Black and Joshua Harris, has set up its first Asia real estate fund to be run by Grant Kelley, former chief executive officer of Colony Capital Asia.
at 1:07 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Hedge Funds, Soros



January 27, 2010

Soros Says Obama May Not Resolve ‘Too Big to Fail’
(Update2)
2010-01-27 16:14:48.473 GMT


(Adds Barney Frank comments in ninth paragraph. See {DAVOS
} for more on the World Economic Forum.)

By John Fraher and Gavin Finch
Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros
said the largest financial institutions may be “too big to
fail” even if U.S. President Barack Obama succeeds in reining
them in.
“Some of the banks will spin off investment banks that
will still be too big to fail,” Soros said in Davos,
Switzerland, where he is attending the World Economic Forum’s
annual meeting.
Politicians and financiers are at loggerheads on bank
regulation in the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since
the Great Depression. Governments from the U.S. to Europe are
trying to avert a repeat by limiting the size of banks and
increasing penalties for risky behavior through measures such as
bonus taxes.
Robert Diamond, president of London-based Barclays Plc,
also criticized Obama’s plan to shrink banks, saying the measure
would be bad for the global economy.
“I’ve seen no analysis that suggests that shrinking banks
and making all banks small or narrower is the answer,” Diamond
said in Davos.
Obama, who isn’t scheduled to attend the conference, has
also denounced “fat-cat bankers” and called for limitations on
the trading activities of financial institutions. The British
government has imposed a 50 percent tax on bankers’ bonuses for
2009 as a way of recovering some of its bailout costs.

‘Stupid Rules’

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann
said the Obama initiative risked hindering global economic
growth.
“If you have fragmented, small players in the financial
sector, meeting the requirements of global trade and production,
you will have a dichotomy which is not going to work and would
not be for the benefit of the real economy,” Ackermann said.
Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services
Committee, supported further regulation of the banking industry.
“Stupid rules are not a good idea, but rules are a good
idea,” Frank, a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, said
at a debate in Davos sponsored by CNBC.
Soros said it’s counterproductive to tax banks before the
consequences of the financial crisis have been fully dealt with.
The threat of greater regulation of Britain’s banking
industry is “critical” as the election approaches, Lloyd’s of
London Chairman Peter Levene said.
“There is a danger around the regulatory” framework, Levene
said on the sidelines of the meeting in Davos today. “People
will wait to see what happens after the election to see if it’s
real. It’s very critical because that’s what our economy is all
about.”
Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call an election in the
U.K. no later than June.

--With assistance from Ambereen Choudhury in London, Jacqueline
Simmons and Aaron Kirchfeld in Davos. Editors: Francis Harris,
Willy Morris

To contact the reporters on this story:
Gavin Finch in London at +44-20-7073-3627 or
gfinch@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
John Fraher at +44-20-7673-2058 or jfraher@bloomberg.ne
Posted by Yuwei Yuan at 11:17 PM 0 comments   
Labels: Banking, Regulator, Soros

January 12, 2010

Buffett's Kraft Rebuke Signals Berkshire Shares Are Closer to Full Value
Perella Weinberg Hires Tokum's Investment Team, Makes Westergaard Partner Perella Weinberg Partners LP hired Tokum Capital Management LP’s investment team and plans to allocate $75 million for it to manage.
Scottish Widows Purchases `Unloved' Japanese Stocks, Depressed Greek Bonds Scottish Widows Investment Partnership, manager of about 140 billion pounds ($226 billion), is buying up some of the world’s least popular assets.
SAC's Cohen Says He Plans to Seek Sanctions Against Former Wife's Lawyer Lawyers for Steven A. Cohen, the founder of SAC Capital Advisors LP sued by his ex-wife last month for racketeering, said they will ask a judge to sanction the attorney who filed what they called a “frivolous” suit.
Soros, Citadel Hire Analysts From Galleon Group After Founder's Indictment Soros Fund Management LLC and Citadel Investment Group LLC hired three employees from Galleon Group LLC, the hedge-fund firm that closed after its billionaire founder Raj Rajaratnam was charged with insider trading.
SEC Should Probe New York Fed Staff Over Instructions to AIG, Senator Says The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate whether employees of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York violated laws on corporate disclosure when they asked American International Group Inc. to withhold information from public filings, a Republican lawmaker said.
Buffett's Kraft Rebuke Signals Berkshire Shares Are Closer to Full Value Warren Buffett, who scolded Kraft Foods Inc. over its plan to issue stock for an acquisition, is using shares of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to pay for his biggest buyout. The apparent inconsistency may signal that Berkshire’s shares are more fully valued than Kraft’s.
Bernanke Bond Premium Highest Since 2007 Shows U.S. Decoupling From Europe The correlation between Treasuries and German bunds that has prevailed since credit markets started freezing in 2007 is breaking down as U.S. economic growth leaves Europe behind.
Bank Profits Tripling Leaves Stocks Cheapest With 15% Discount to S&P 500 No U.S. industry has faster profit growth than banks and brokers, and no group is more hated by investors.
Dubai's First Foreclosure Opens Floodgates in World's Worst Housing Market Dubai’s housing rout sent prices down 52 percent in the past year, prompting some homeowners to abandon their cars and mortgage payments and flee the country. Not one received a foreclosure notice.
British Financial Services Companies Most Pessimistic in a Year, CBI Says U.K. financial-services companies are more pessimistic than at any time in the past year on the outlook for business growth, according to the Confederation of British Industry.
Posted by Yuwei Yuan at 1:27 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Galleon, Soros, Warren Buffett
September 02, 2009

Soros fund soared as rivals lost in crisis - report
Tue Sep 1, 2009 4:23pm EDT

BOSTON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros, long celebrated for his shrewd market picks, proved his acumen anew in the last year when his firm's assets surged 41 percent while most rivals' assets tumbled.

According to data compiled by AR, a new hedge fund magazine, Soros Fund Management oversaw $24 billion in assets on July 1, 41.18 percent more than the New York-based firm managed 12 months earlier.

Bridgewater Associates, the biggest U.S. hedge fund, lost 14.95 percent in assets over the last 12 months, cutting its assets under management to $37 billion, the magazine reported.

Other prominent firms suffered even sharper declines in assets when investors punished managers for poor returns by pulling their money out and markets stumbled.

Hedge fund firm Renaissance Technologies, for example, saw its assets under management shrink 41.38 percent to $17 billion, the magazine reported.

Soros, who famously earned $1 billion by betting against the British pound in 1992, had warned about last year's financial crisis before it happened and was able to benefit from it, people who know him said.

His flagship Quantum Endowment fund gained nearly 10 percent in 2008 when the average hedge fund lost 19 percent.

Last year, Soros, who often ranks among the hedge fund industry's best-paid managers, again made the top of the list when he took home $1.1 billion.

(Reporting by Svea Herbst-Bayliss; Editing by Richard Chang)
Posted by Yuwei Yuan at 9:48 AM 0 comments   
Labels: Quantitative Management, Renaissance Technologies, Soros

August 14, 2009

George Soros Cut Petrobras Stake in Second Quarter
By Saijel Kishan

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire George Soros cut his stake in his biggest holding, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, in the second quarter while buying more shares of other energy producers.

His New York-based hedge-fund firm, Soros Fund Management LLC, sold 22 million U.S.-listed common shares of Petrobras, as the Brazilian oil company is known, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Soros bought 5.8 million of the company’s U.S.-traded preferred shares.

Soros boosted his stake in oil company Hess Corp. to 5.1 million shares as of June 30 from 3.7 million at the end of the first quarter, according to the filing. Hess was Soros’s second- largest holding. He also added to stakes in Houston-based Plains Exploration & Production Co. and bought shares in Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc. and InterOil Corp. in Sydney.

Soros’s company oversees about $24 billion. His Quantum Endowment Fund returned 9.3 percent in the second quarter. Hedge funds gained an average of 9.1 percent during the period, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. in Chicago. The filing doesn’t reflect the Soros’s holdings in cash or other securities.

Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros, declined to comment on the holdings.

Soros cut his stake in Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., selling 4 million shares of the fertilizer producer while investing in Monsanto Co., the world’s largest seed producer.

Money managers who oversee more than $100 million in equities must file a Form 13F within 45 days of each quarter’s end to list their U.S.-listed stocks, options and convertible bonds. The filings don’t show non-U.S. securities or how much cash the firms hold.

Soros’s biggest sale in the second quarter was his stake in ConocoPhillips, the second-largest U.S. refiner after he sold 4 million shares. The hedge fund also sold its stake in Macy’s Inc., the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain.

To contact the reporter on this story: Saijel Kishan in New York at skishan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 14, 2009 17:31 EDT
at 11:13 PM 0 comments   
Labels: Energy, Soros