【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月欧洲艾滋病治疗行业研究报告
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:35
【目录或简介】:
FEEDBACK FROM AUDIOLOGY NOW CONGRESS
Following Audiology NOW, we feel more positive about
Sonova and the hearing aid market, which has
prompted our upgrade from Equal to Overweight with a
CHF150 price target. This implies a CY11E P/E multiple
of 23x, which for conservative reasons is below
pre-recession multiples of 25-26x, despite our view that
Sonova can continue to grow its top line organically by
+10%. We expect a strong 2H FY10 result and
encouraging FY11 guidance despite demanding comps.
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
2010 Market Growth Outlook – we are raising our
market growth expectations from +5-6% to +6-7% to
start to reflect an exceptionally strong high-end product
cycle, as well as a more optimistic outlook on the VA
contract. The last high-end industry product cycle of this
magnitude resulted in +10-11% growth in CY06E.
New Wearing Style Cycle – the hearing aid industry
may be moving to the next wearing style cycle, away
from behind-the-ear to invisible deep-in-the-canal
technology. The move towards invisible solutions could
better our CY11E industry growth rate of 5-6%.
EARNINGS CHANGES
Sonova – we are raising our FY10E & FY11E EPS by
+3.7% and +4.2% to CHF5.45 and CHF6.17 driven by
stronger organic sales growth.
William Demant – we are raising our FY10E & FY11E
EPS by +0.8% and +1.0% to DKK17.59 and DKK20.38.
GN Store Nord - we are lowering our FY10E & FY11E
EPS by -10.1% and -4.5% to DKK1.25 and DKK1.52.
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION
We reiterate our "Equal-weight" stance on William
Demant and GN Store Nord and are more bullish on
Sonova with an “Overweight”.