[原创] Thermodynamics and Darwinian economics of the One Child Policy, 1/5

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

Google 翻译

The thermodynamics and Darwinian economics of the One Child Policy, Part 1 of 5: the single-country model and the Ehrlich necessity claim

Foreword: The two competing hypotheses in extrema are Hypothesis One: the One Child Policy (OCP) is necessary AND nationally fitness-positive; and Hypothesis Two: the policy is not necessary AND nationally fitness-negative (i.e. weakens the country). This 5-part series summarizes the thermodynamic and Darwinian aspects of the OCP. Since students in China learn a Ford Foundation-funded liberal "slave economics" that ignores Darwinism and the centrality of population theory (though human capital comprise between 50% to 90% of total country wealth, depending on the estimate), these omitted materials are emphasized.

The Population Bomb
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich began a Ford Foundation-funded campaign to monger the Necessity Claim: that without intervention, population would grow, grow, and grow skyward ad infinitum, off a cliff, resulting in... FAMINE.

But thermodynamics identifies a limit: As a non-equilibrium thermodynamic machine, the average human body requires 2,000 calories (the type of free energy usable by man) to live, to avoid equilibrium (a.k.a. death) – e.g., to power a heart-beat. Therefore, theory guarantees population cannot exceed food supply to expand indefinitely.

Observe the high stability of China’s food output in peacetime, growing steadily with technological advance as theory predicts: grains, meats, and fruits output, as analyzed by the population reformist Dr. Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin (Madison). Oscillation is further damped by granaries to smooth out year-to-year fluctuations, import in years of shortfall, and export in surplus. As a continental-sized country spanning four time zones latitudinally, and climate zones longitudinally, shortfall in one region is diversified or offset by surplus in another; thus the human food supply does not oscillate wildly as in Ehrlich models such as wolf-deer species interaction.

Thus famine would occur in China only if the three hit simultaneously: 1) a multi-regional drought [1]; AND 2) the shortfall exceeds the granary; AND 3) a wartime blockade of import.

How the other 200 Countries Allocate Food: the Market as Thermodynamic Mechanism  
In the 200 other countries presently in existence, and up to 1949 in China, a foodstuffs version of the Coase Theorem holds: the productive purchase food sufficient for themselves, and must generate additional production to feed children. In a market economy, the market distributes the food based upon thermodynamic efficiency. No government intervention is required. Thus:

The upper-class could afford families as large as they want (which creates a national good because of talent heredity);

The middle-class in a fully populated country may typically afford a family at replacement of 2.2 plus the technological growth rate, or perhaps 2.3 children;

The poor or indolent: unable to marry, afford home, or purchase food for children would show a sub-replacement birthrate in the range of 0 to 2.1.

The family size of the productive classes remains intact, and the talent mechanism removed in 1949 continues to function; i.e., human capital deepening occurs as the productive classes expand and the less productive select out.

Each household pulls its own weight; in this responsibility system the government need only refrain from the transfer payment.

In 1949, in an act of centralization the CCP chose to seize the food allocation mechanism. Technically, from 1949 to 1979 the country ran an “Infinite Child Policy”, as the commi system guaranteed public food for limitless private children. Since 1979, it has restored the market mechanism, per foodstuffs. Thus we have the physics answer were China to rescind the policy entirely, today: none problem at all, and several benefits (avoidance of accident-induced underpopulation; eugenics; and family formation.) Physics thus refutes Ehrlich’s Necessity Claim.


[1] Of the three farm inputs of labor, capital (e.g., seeds, machinery), and natural capital (land, rainfall), the peacetime shock tends to occur in the natural capital, usually drought. Droughts threatened to wipe out the ancient farmer's annual crop, but modernities (e.g., dams, river diversion of water, irrigation pipelines, water trucks, cloud-seeding enabled by satellite weather forecasts) may supply water until the belated rainfall.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：Economics Dynamics Economic Dynamic darwin Darwinism population theory thermodynamics