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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月韩国基建行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：39
【目录或简介】：
Avoid housing construction: We turn more cautious on domestic
housing and recommend that investors avoid construction names with
housing exposure. Although recent underperformance of the sector has
priced in key fundamental deterioration, we see further risks ahead, such
as an actual price decline in housing. Housing business will reserve
more provisioning costs, and sector earnings warrant further downward
estimate revisions, in our view.
• What is priced in? The sector has underperformed KOSPI by 20%
YTD mainly due to: (1) the government’s mass supply plan for public
housing; (2) strong bids from European engineering firms in the Middle
East plant market; and (3) disappointing housing measures announced
on April 23.
• What is not priced in? However, we believe the market has not priced
in key fundamental risks such as a decline in housing prices. As housing
prices in Korea have never seen a correction of more than 10% in the
past 20 years, a potential correction might be marginal. However, this
will have a significantly higher impact on earnings as: (1) existing unsold
units will cost more provisioning; and (2) new projects in the pipeline are
likely to face further delay.
• Earnings not reliable: Unsold housing units result in: (1) a rise in the
SG&A for promotion; and (2) more provisioning of project financing
(PF) guarantees for developers. In 2009, the combined provisioning of
Daelim, GS, and Hyundai E&C was W434B, 37% of their reported NP.
Unless unsold units decline, earnings will lack reliability. However,
under a declining housing price trend, unsold units won’t drop easily.
• Stock selection: We remain OW on Samsung Engineering on the pure
overseas expansion story of the plant market (no housing). We
downgrade Hyundai Development to Neutral as we expect few share
price catalysts from the government’s housing measures expected in the
near term. We remain Neutral on Hyundai E&C, Daelim Inds and GS
Engg & Construction, although we cut our PTs for these stocks. Current
valuations look supportive for Hyundai Dev and Hyundai E&C (less than
10% downside to the previous trough on P/B basis). However, we see
further downside risks for GS E&C and Daelim despite recent
underperformance (more than 30% downside to the previous trough).
Table of Contents
We turn cautious on domestic housing .................................3
We reduce our sector multiples ..............................................3
Domestic housing lacks catalysts.................................................................................4
Overseas orders to take time ........................................................................................6
Lessons from 1Q10 results...........................................................................................6
Risk to our call..........................................................................7
Companies
Samsung Engineering ..................................................................................................9
Hyundai Development Company...............................................................................14
Hyundai E&C ............................................................................................................19
GS Engineering & Construction ................................................................................24
Daelim Industrial .......................................................................................................29
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