2010年2月印度基建行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月印度基建行业研究报告
        【作者】：Hichens Harrison证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Infrastructure
Compelling valuations
Our infrastructure universe has underperformed the broader market over the last
three months, as delayed financial closure on projects and political turmoil in the
irrigation hub of Andhra Pradesh dented the Q3FY10 performance. Growth in
9MFY10 was muted as well, forcing a downward revision in management
guidance for the fiscal. However, we expect project execution to pick up in FY11
given the comfortable order book position (2.5x FY10E revenues) and improved
liquidity. With sector valuations attractive at 12.0x FY11E earnings (adjusting for
subsidiary value and excluding L&T & developers), we recommend a Buy on L&T,
Jaiprakash Associates, IVRCL, Nagarjuna Construction, Patel Engineering and IRB.
First quarter of revenue decline: The RHH infrastructure universe (ex-developers)
reported its first quarter of revenue slippage in FY10 with a 3% dip in Q3, despite
this being a seasonally strong period. Execution delays arising from slow financial
closure on projects and the political imbroglio in Andhra Pradesh impeded the
quarter’s performance. The 9MFY10 showing was subdued as well, though order
inflows and margin improvement were bright spots. We expect execution to gather
pace considering the healthy order book for the sector and improved lending to
infrastructure projects. Also, the lower base for FY10 would support an 15%
revenue CAGR over FY09-FY12.
Robust order book supports revenue visibility: The order backlog of companies
under our coverage increased 22.4% YoY in Q3FY10, underpinned by the
government’s thrust on infrastructure development. The book/bill ratio for the
sector is healthy, in the range of 2–3.9x trailing 4-quarter revenues. This indicates
strong revenue visibility for the next three or four years. Roads, buildings and
power contributed a bulk of the order booking.
Stocks attractive post-correction: Construction stocks (excluding L&T and
developers) have corrected significantly after the recent Q3FY10 results and are
currently trading at an average P/E of 12.0x on FY11E (after adjusting for
subsidiary valuation). In our view, valuations are attractive considering the strong
expected earnings trajectory and a continued government focus on infrastructure.
Several long-term growth drivers: While we expect stock performance to be
volatile in the short term, we see opportunities for above-average returns in
companies that have a strong track record, a sturdy financial backbone, and
robust risk-management systems with the ability to scale up. A rebound in
economic growth and corporate capex along with improved availability of funds
augur well for the sector. Public sector investments will be crucial going forward,
with roads, power, water and urban infrastructure likely to attract a major chunk
of the development funds.
Stock picks: We remain positive on L&T and Jaiprakash Associates in the large
cap space, IVRCL Infrastructure, Nagarjuna Construction and Patel Engineering
in the mid cap space, and IRB Infrastructure in the developer segment.

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