2010年4月俄罗斯移动通信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月俄罗斯移动通信行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Broadband is the key value driver for
Russian telcos
 VimpelCom Ltd set to increase capex
and regain competitiveness
 We have OW(V) ratings on VimpelCom
Ltd (TP USD27) and MTS (TP USD71 vs
USD69) but we prefer VimpelCom Ltd,
which offers a higher potential return
Reassessing relative positions
Event: VimpelCom officially merged this month with
Kyivstar, the leading Ukrainian mobile operator, following a
successful exchange offer, to become VimpelCom Ltd.
VimpelCom Ltd now has a stronger balance sheet and can
resume capex investment. It will be one of the largest mobile
operators in the CEEMEA region, with revenue of
cUSD11bn and a high 49.6% EBITDA margin in 2010 on
our estimates, and c92m mobile subscribers at end-2010. We
believe investors should take a fresh look at the new entity.
Key catalysts: We expect broadband to be the main driver in
2010. Our research shows that there are c11m Russian
households with a PC but without broadband. We believe
broadband growth is set to accelerate as netbook prices
decline and investment in technology (fibre, HDSPA)
spreads out. We believe that MTS and VimpelCom Ltd are
well placed to benefit from this Russian broadband
revolution.
Reassessing relative positions: The market perceives
VimpelCom as having partly lost ground and
competitiveness versus MTS due to its aggressive capex cuts
in 2009. Our analysis shows this has been only temporary
and VimpelCom Ltd’s position remains strong. It continues
to lead in broadband coverage and capacity build-up and
controls a large part of the Russian mobile retail market.
Valuation and risks: We have Overweight (V) ratings on both
VimpelCom Ltd and MTS, but we have a higher potential total
return (49%) to our USD27 target price for VimpelCom, which
looks cheaper to us than MTS (target price USD71 vs USD69,
a potential return of 26%) on fundamentals if a Ukrainian
economic recovery starts to materialise The main downside
risks lie in integration execution risk with Kyivstar for
VimpelCom Ltd and with Comstar for MTS.

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