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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国互联网与传媒行业研究报告
【作者】：Jefferies证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：50
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
SUMMARY & KEY POINTS .................. 4
VALUATION: THE PRICE IS (STILL) RIGHT! ................................................................................................ 5
WAYS TO PROFIT FROM THE SECULAR ONLINE SHIFT; GROWTH VS. VALUE PICKS ........................ 6
2010: THE YEAR OF GROWTH RESUMPTION ............................................................................................ 7
Outlook for Online Advertising, the $55B “Niche” Opportunity ............................................................................ 8
Outlook for e-commerce, the $143B Emerging Market ..................................................................................... 11
KEY THEMES FOR THE INTERNET IN 2010 .............................................................................................. 13
1. Internet Usage to Continue to Grow… .......................................................................................................... 13
2. Ubiquity of Broadband to Drive the Evolution of Ad Formats ........................................................................ 15
3. 3G/4G Mobile to Boost Content Consumption – The Apple Effect ................................................................ 17
4. Shopping Online Goes Mainstream .............................................................................................................. 19
5. Search Advertising to Show more Growth Still .............................................................................................. 21
6. Social Networking to Get Wider Acceptance with Marketers ........................................................................ 23
7. Online Video to Finally Live up to the Hype! ................................................................................................. 24
8. Strong International Exposure, Key to Outperformance ................................................................................ 25
9. Strong Balance Sheet, a Strategic Asset ...................................................................................................... 26
10. M&A Activity to Intensify, Driving Multiples Higher ...................................................................................... 27
RISKS & CONCERNS IN AN ONLINE WORLD ........................................................................................... 29
A TRADITIONAL MEDIA PERSPECTIVE .................................................................................................... 31
Investment Thesis
Growth in Internet population and in user engagement online continues unabated, reinforcing the secular growth
nature of this segment, and pointing to the power of the platform as an ideal distribution venue for content, commerce
and communication. While 2009 was challenging, with growth rates decelerating to levels we have not seen since
2000, it forced most players to focus on protecting margins and balance sheets; and still Internet stocks outperformed
the broader market that year. 2010 is shaping up to be a growth year again, as consumers’ sentiment improves and
with it their spending, and as advertisers (particularly larger ones) embrace the platform. We remain positive on the
Internet segment in general, and favor models that boast a strong value proposition (both vs. offline and online
competitors), a very large addressable market, strong management team and balance sheet.
For traditional media, we expect industry-wide ad expenditures to grow 5% (Magna estimate) in 2010 as advertisers
gain confidence and begin to make investment in their brands in order to build market share. This represents solid
growth following a tough 2009 where advertising revenues decreased ~15%. Within traditional media, TV stands to
benefit the most in an economic recovery as it remains the best mass reach option for advertisers. We expect cable to
outperform other media, but network broadcast TV is expected to put up solid growth, especially for top-rated
broadcasters. As a sequential improvement in advertising continues to unfold, we believe media companies with the
strongest ratings trends will outperform. Although we should start to see some improvement in local media, we believe
a pickup in local trends will lag national advertising. Valuation has improved across the media space, but we are not
yet at historical levels.
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