发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月加拿大寿险行业研究报告
【作者】：CORMARK证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Initiating Coverage:
With this report we are initiating coverage of IAG with a Market Perform
rating and a $40 target price, MFC with a Market Perform rating and a
$23 target price and SLF with a $34 target price and a Market Perform
rating. While returns to our target prices look healthy, returns to banks
stocks look superior with less risk in our view – hence the Market
Perform ratings for the life insurers.
Capital: Risks Waning
MCCSR ratios are well ahead of regulatory minimums (the average
MCCSR ratio at quarter end was 228% versus a regulatory minimum
target of 150%). Some capital risk exists with new rules on the horizon,
however, given such strong starting points and what we anticipate will
be a lengthy drawn out introduction (adoption) of new rules, we do not
believe the lifeco’s are at risk of needing to raise equity capital.
Earnings Power: Could Return To Normal
Fast…Or Not…
We believe EPS are set to rebound in 2010 (up 108% on average) and
then further increase by 14% on average in 2011. This implies a 2011
ROE of 12.5% for IAG, 12% for MFC and 11% for SLF.
We believe lifeco’s are still in “repair” mode and 2010 may be the last
year of large reserve increases, restructuring charges and other product
design changes. As such, we expect the valuations of these companies
to be negatively affected until the final cost of the repairs is well known.
Valuations Do Not Reflect Optionality, Yet
We suggest investors should consider a “through the cycle” view on
ROE (inclusive of experience gains) for valuation purposes and adjust
slightly for “optionality” and organic growth prospects. In this regard, we
believe both MFC and SLF have significant optionality that will
eventually be priced into their stocks.
MFC currently trades at 1.2x current book value and SLF trades at 1.1x
current book value. We believe book values are depressed and that
these stocks will eventually trade higher than our target ratios of 1.4x
and 1.2x respectively as the macro environment improves.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
