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China may emerge as the world’s largest economy by 2025 and it may be
twice the size of the US by 2050. However, China faces various actual
and potential challenges: increasing natural resource dependence and
rising geo-political competition with “status quo” powers, weakening
political legitimacy of current governance structures, environmental
degradation, political and economic limits to the current investment- and
export-oriented growth strategy.
— China’s increasing economic and financial weight, while very
significantly enhancing its role in international affairs, will not translate
into greater leverage vis-à-vis Washington for now.
— The Sino-US economic-financial relationship is best described as one of
“asymmetric interdependence” skewed in Washington’s favour. Both
sides have an interest in avoiding a broader economic conflict. However,
should push ever come to shove, China would incur far greater
economic and financial costs than the US.
— The balance of economic and financial power will only shift once China
reduces its dependence on the US market (or US dependence on the
Chinese market increases).
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