中国采矿业研究论文（2010年3月出版，英文版）

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从 ONESOURCE 上下载的付费研究论文，地址http://globalbb.onesource.com

本文是BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL（www.businessmonitor.com）出品的2010年第二季度的关于中国采矿业研究论文（2010年3月出版，英文版），并包含5年的产业预测，堪称精品。

摘要如下：
Executive Summary
Gold Production Hits New Record
Chinese gold production rose by 11.34% in 2009, to 313.98 tonnes, according to statistics released by the
China Gold Association in early 2010. Shandong, Henan, Jiangxi, Fujian and Yunnan provinces produced
nearly 60% of total output, with the country’s 10 largest gold firms accounting for some 47.31% of the
total by company. In recent years, the country has been encouraging M&A activity within the sector, with
the total number of gold producers having dropped from over 1,200 in 2002 to around 700 in 2009,
according to local media reports.
Australian Acquisitions Continue
Early 2010 has seen a continuation of moves by China to acquire stakes in Australian mining assets. In
January 2010, it was reported that Zijin Mining had been successful in its AUD547mn bid for Indophil
Resources. This follows several high-profile purchases of Australian mining assets over the course of
2009, including China Minmetals’ US$1.69bn takeover of OZ Minerals and Yanzhou Coal’s US$3bn
takeover of Felix Resources. Indeed, already in 2010, Yanzhou has stated that it is looking for more
acquisitions in the year to come. BMI expects China to maintain strong levels of investment into the
Australian mining sector during 2010.
Coal Output Seen Higher
All indications are that China will have increased coal output again in 2009. Several leading state-owned
coal producers have announced strong production figures for the year just passed. ChinaCoal said that
output was up by 9.65% y-o-y, to 125mn tonnes, with Shenhua Energy announcing a 13.2% increase in
output, to 210.3mn tonnes. Although no full-year figures for the entire industry were available as this
report went to press, the most recent data (Jan-Oct 2009) showed an 11.4% increase, to 2.42bn tonnes.
New Data
For 2010, BMI has made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as
using local statistics agencies and associations, we now also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial
Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for
our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary
econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining
forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensuring that we
can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.
Country Overview
The People’s Republic of China is a natural world leader in terms of both reserves and the production of
several metals and minerals Endowed with abundant mineral wealth, the country leads in the production
of copper, coal, aluminium and gold.
China Mining Report Q2 2010
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
China is also in the fortunate position of being cash rich at a time when many mining companies around
the world are struggling to locate financing. In recent months, Beijing has been very active in buying up
foreign mining assets, notably in Australia.
The national government is taking active steps to make the mining industry more competitive. Although it
is a communist state, China introduced market reforms in the 1980s and today only about a third of the
economy is directly state-controlled. The government is encouraging mergers and acquisitions (M&As) as
a means of ensuring optimal use of mineral resources and barriers to foreign investment are gradually
being removed.
Industry Forecast
In 2008, China became the world’s largest supplier of gold, surpassing South Africa. China is also
implementing its 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010), which emphasises securing the economy’s future
metals and minerals resource needs. The focus is on further geological exploration of mineral reserves
and increasing the supply of mineral products to fuel China’s rapid economic expansion. One area where
China is especially keen to increase its reserves is uranium. With the country looking to rapidly increase
its nuclear power generation, the government is seeking to secure a stable supply of raw materials.
Uranium exploration is concentrating on Inner Mongolia and north-west China. BMI forecasts that the
mining industry in China is expected to grow at a rate in excess of 8% per annum over our forecast
period, reaching US$505.9bn by 2014.

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关键词：研究论文 英文版 采矿业 Acquisitions Developments 中国 研究 论文 英文版 采矿业

目录如下：
CONTENTS
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................5
SWOT Analysis................................................................................................................................................7
China Political SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
China Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
China Business Environment SWOT..................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Special Focus: Outlook For Global Mining....................................................................................................9
Table: Biggest Chinese Acquisitions In Australia Since 2005............................................................................................................................. 10
Project And Property Updates ......................................................................................................................13
Metals ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Gold.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Copper................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Nickel.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 14
Iron Ore.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Zinc..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Bauxite And Alumina .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Uranium.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Minerals................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Coal .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Business Environment .................................................................................................................................19
Asia Pacific Mining Business Environment ........................................................................................................................................................ 19
Table: Asia Pacific Mining Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................................................ 19
China’s Business Environment Ratings .............................................................................................................................................................. 20
Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Table: BMI’s Legal Framework Ratings............................................................................................................................................................. 22
Labour Force...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: China – Demographic Indicators, 2000-2030 ......................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Regional Labour Force Quality............................................................................................................................................................... 25
Foreign Investment Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Table: Asia’s FDI Inflows, 2005-2006................................................................................................................................................................ 27
Table: China’s Annual FDI Inflows, 2000-2006................................................................................................................................................. 28
Political Environment....................................................................................................................................29
Long-Term Political Outlook.............................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Industry Forecast Scenario ...........................................................................................................................35
Commodities Forecast – Copper ........................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Table: BMI Copper Forecast.............................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Table: Copper, 2005-2011.................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Commodities Forecast – Aluminium................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Table: Aluminium, 2005-2011 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 38
Commodities Forecast – Lead ............................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Table: BMI Lead Update .................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Lead, 2005-2011...................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Global Industry Overview................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
China’s Mining Industry Forecasts..................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: China’s Mining Industry, 2007-2014....................................................................................................................................................... 41

Competitive Landscape................................................................................................................................44
Table: Key Players In China’s Mining Sector..................................................................................................................................................... 44
Company Monitor..........................................................................................................................................45
Datong Coal Industry Company ......................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Shandong Gold Mining Company....................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Zhaojin Mining Industry Company ..................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Zijin Mining Group............................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data.............................................................................................49
Section 1: Population.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030....................................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 50
Section 2: Education And Healthcare................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030....................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 51
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006......................................................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012 ................................................................................................................................ 52
Appendices ....................................................................................................................................................53
Global Assumptions Q210 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2014.............................................................................................................................................................. 53
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2007-2012................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Emerging Markets Growth, 2007-2014 (%) ............................................................................................................................................ 56
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2007-2014.............................................................................................. 57
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data ......................................................................................................................................................... 58
Section 1: Population.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030....................................................................................................................................................... 58
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 59
Section 2: Education And Healthcare................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030....................................................................................................................................................................... 59
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 60
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006......................................................................................................................................................... 60
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 60
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012 ................................................................................................................................ 61

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