瑞士信贷：全球证券投资策略

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

【来源】瑞士信贷
【日期】2010.10.18
【篇幅】PDF  37PAGE
【内容】：

Pricing power
In a world of low nominal GDP growth (due to excess capacity and excess
leverage) and rising commodities, pricing is abnormally important: we calculate
a price increase of 1pp raises fair value on a DCF by 16%. We examine:
■
Our CPI/PPI monitor: we look at CPI/PPI measures in absolute and relative
terms. This highlights paper, luxury goods, mining, chemicals, spirits and
household insurance in Europe. In the US, tobacco, tyres, food producers,
auto insurance and hotels also show strong pricing. In the UK, auto
insurance, soft drinks, spirits and telecom services are rising strongly.
■
Our analysts’ opinion: We highlight the stocks where pricing is >2%—
better than normal and rising in net terms. Outperform-rated European
stocks with these characteristics and which look cheap on Credit Suisse
HOLT® or have a FCF yield above 5%: BMW (a Focus List stock), Credit
Agricole, Smurfit, Rio Tinto, Millennium & Copthorne, Lloyds, Weir, SAP (a
Focus List stock), AMEC, BA, Mondi, Antena 3 and Imperial Tobacco.
■
Who is vulnerable to higher commodity prices? We look at sectors’
commodity-related costs (energy, industrial, soft commodities). Among the
stocks that might be negatively affected by higher commodity prices, with no
pricing power and downside on HOLT are Casino, Carrefour, Dairy Crest,
and Saipem. We show similar screens for US stocks.
■
Our capital discipline monitor points to potential structural changes that
could lead to increased pricing ability. Among global sectors, we see the
best capital discipline in retailing, autos, tech hardware, industrial and drugs,
while we find the worst in power generation, mining and energy utilities.
Our analysis supports our overweight of luxury goods, select GEM consumer
staples (tobacco, food and beer), premium car makers and software. Credit
Suisse Delta 1 has set up baskets on this theme. CSERGDPP and CSUSGDPP
include European and US companies with good pricing power. CSERBDPP and
CSUSBDPP include companies in both regions that have weak pricing power
(with many additionally being vulnerable to higher input prices).

Global equity strategy.pdf (432.37 KB, 需要: 2 个论坛币)

2010-10-20 13:48:10 上传

需要: 2 个论坛币  [购买]

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏1 回帖

关键词：瑞士信贷 证券投资 投资策略 Commodities Vulnerable highlights important insurance absolute capacity