瑞士信贷：2009年韩国证券市场投资策略

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Korea Market Strategy
STRATEGY
2009 outlook
KRW shows the highest sensitivity to the US credit spread
JPY
CNY
MYR
PHP MXN
SGD
THB
TWD
HKD
BRL
IDR
INR
KRW
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
(30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
The level of depreciation since Apr 2007 (%)
Sensitivity to US credit spread (%)
Source: Bloomberg, DataStream
■ While the market’s near-term outlook remains challenging with
continued high volatility, the combination of a huge market correction,
the unprecedented level of globally coordinated policy efforts to revive
credit markets and the large benefit from falling commodity prices
suggests that 1H09 could be a good time to accumulate Korean equities.
■ The single most important catalyst that we look for in 2009 is a positive
reversal in the US credit spread in 1H09 (which is our global view).,
especially given the combination of the historically high sensitivity of
the won and KOSPI on falling US credit spread and the fact that the
rapid pace of currency depreciation has been one of the key culprits
behind huge foreign selling over the last 18 months.
■ While it looks too early to make a big shift in our defensive stance, the
huge outperformance and heavy valuation premium seen for defensive
stocks suggests the growing need for running a barbell-style portfolio
going forward. Consumer staples remain our preferred defensive
choice. Our preferred risks at this point in the cycle lie in: 1) global
leaders with strong balance sheets and impeccable cost leadership,
and 2) key beneficiaries from the falling US credit spread.
■ Accordingly, the top five stocks that we like for 2009 include KT&G,
CJ Cheiljedang, SEC, POSCO and KB Financial Group. We plan to
avoid deep, long-duration cyclical sectors and 2008 outperformers
where we disagree with their relative defensive qualities and/or market
share gain stories, namely Hyundai Mipo, Hyundai E&C, KOGAS,
LS Corp. and Samsung Techwin.

2009 outlook
While the market’s near-term outlook remains challenging with continued high volatility,
the combination of a peaking US credit spread over the next three to six months, the
historically high sensitivity of the won and KOSPI on falling US credit spreads and
significant currency depreciation (one of the key culprits behind huge foreign selling over
the last 18 months) leads us to believe that 1H09 should prove to be a good opportunity to
accumulate Korean equities.
1H09 could be good time to add Korean equities
The combination of a significant slowdown in global growth, further downward risks to
street estimates, and risk of the local credit cycle worsening suggests the market’s nearterm
outlook remains challenging with continued high volatility. On the other hand, we do
see a significant marker correction, an unprecedented level of globally coordinated policy
efforts to revive credit markets, the historically high sensitivity of the won and KOSPI from
a falling US credit spread (which we believe is likely over the next three to six months) and
a large benefit from falling commodity prices. Taken together, we are not as cautious as
previously and expect 1H09 to be a good opportunity to accumulate Korean equities.
Leverage play on falling US credit spread
Our global strategy team believes that the US credit spread is set to peak over the next
three to six months given: 1) that global growth is unlikely to get worse from here, 2) the
sharply steepened US yield curve, 3) an unprecedented level of policy attempts to revive
the credit markets, and 4) the diminishing year-end effect. This, plus the historically high
sensitivity to the won on the US credit spread, the fact that the rapid pace of currency
depreciation has been one of the key driving forces behind huge foreign selling pressure
over the last 18 months and the positive forex liquidity effect of the falling US credit spread
on the banks and large corporate segments, leads us to believe that a positive reversal in
the US credit spread and the won will be the single most important catalyst for the market.
Growing need for running a barbell-style portfolio
While it is too early to make a big shift in our defensive stance, the huge outperformance
and heavy valuation premium seen for defensive stocks as a whole leads us to not only
believe that their relative defensive outlook does not look as compelling as before, but also
see the risk of retaining excessive concentration on defensive stocks. As such, we see a
growing need for running a barbell-style portfolio moving into 2009. That said, consumer
staples remain our relative defensive choice given their relatively less stretched
outperformance to the telecoms sector and high sensitivity on the stronger currency. Our
preferred risks at this point lie in: 1) global leaders with proven cost leadership and robust
balance sheets that would benefit from the currently tight credit market environment and
2) key beneficiaries from the falling US credit spread (notably a few banks).
Our top picks
Accordingly, the top five stocks that we like for 2009 include KT&G, CJ Cheiljedang, SEC,
POSCO and KB Financial. We plan to avoid: 1) deep, long-duration cyclical sectors, and
2) 2008 outperformers where we disagree with their relative defensive qualities and/or
market share gain stories, namely Hyundai Mipo, Hyundai E&C, KOGAS, LS Corp. and
Samsung Techwin.

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关键词：瑞士信贷 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 historically 投资 证券 信贷 韩国 瑞士

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