瑞士信贷：2009年南美洲证券市场投资策略

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Latam Equities in 2009
STRATEGY IDEAS
Fasten your seat belts
Gloomy global outlook: Credit Suisse forecasts Global GDP growth of 1.5%,
with the G7 at its worst level since 1945. Our global strategists argue that once
GDP growth slows below trend, it normally stays below trend for 2-3 years. This
is also consistent with our house view that the US will take 3 years to deleverage.
Latin America will not be immune to the economic downturn, in our
view.
We prefer Brazil over Mexico, despite earnings declining 29% in Brazil, mainly
due to the impact of commodity prices and slowing GDP growth to only 1.3%.
The link to the US economy will lead to a near recession in Mexico, with GDP
growth of just 0.6%. Furthermore, relative valuations are not in tandem with
corporate and country CDSs. Mexico is trading at 12.2x and Brazil at 9.2x.
Ibovespa mid-year target at 43,000: Our Ibovespa target reflects our 2009
earnings estimates and P/E multiples normalized at historical averages of 10x,
below the recent peaks. Near-term, we see downside potential to 32,300 in our
bear scenario. We are taking a defensive stance and recommend overweight in
Banks, Utilities, Beverages, Wireless, Toll Roads, Media, Airlines and
Healthcare.
IPC–Mexbol mid-year target at 22,600: Our IPC target is set taking a
normalized P/E multiple of 12.5x for Mexico. We see downside potential to
20,200 in our bear case. We are also recommending a defensive stance, with
overweight in Wireless, Beverages, Media and Homebuilders.
15 Latam stocks to start the year: Ambev, AMX, CCU, Cemig, Cesp, Copa
Airlines, CSN, GEO, Gol Airlines, Itaú-Unibanco, Modelo, Net, Renner, Televisa
and Vivo.

Latam Equities in 2009
Investment Summary
Credit Suisse’s strategy teams have a small overweight in Global Equities and
overweight in GEM Equities, with a focus on NJA. Mid-year targets suggest approximately
11-20% upside to current levels. CS forecasts global GDP growth of 1.5%, with expected
economic growth for the G7 at its worst level since 1945. Our global strategists argue that,
once GDP growth slows below trend, it normally stays below trend for 2-3 years. This is
also consistent with our in-house view that the U.S. will take 3 years to de-leverage.
In Latam Equities, we prefer Brazil over Mexico. However, we are not enthusiastic about
either of them. Under our fully revised earnings estimates, Brazil is trading at 2009 P/E of
9.2x, while Mexico is at 12.2x.
In Brazil, we have a mid-year target for the Ibovespa of 43,000, suggesting 9% upside
from current levels. This is based on (i) our estimated 29% decline in index-weighted
earnings in our base case and (ii) normalized P/E multiple for Brazilian cyclicals at 8.5x
and for ex-cyclicals at 10x. Our bear scenario suggests a mid-year target of 32,300 and
our bull case implies 50,900 points (in line with our DCF-based fair value for the index).
We see more downside than upside to our base case, since we believe there is limited
visibility on global economic recovery in late 2009 and thereafter. In our view, markets will
likely price through earnings in early 2009 and will only start to discount a more positive
outlook later in the year, assuming that the global counter-cyclical measures being taken,
particularly in the U.S. and China, will create better conditions for sustained global
economic recovery.
Although Brazil is in a much better condition than in past crises, our economics team
anticipates a material GDP slowdown in 2009 (from growth of 5.7% in 2008 to just 1.3% in
2009), driven by a substantial reduction in household consumption and weaker
investments. Furthermore, the collapse in commodity prices should weigh on key stock
market sectors in Brazil, resulting in the major earnings decline we are forecasting. In our
view, the recent rally of 21% from its recent low of October 27th, potentially negative news
flow in early 2009 and deteriorating earnings momentum in 1H09 are likely to limit the
near-term performance of the Ibovespa. With this in mind, we are favoring a defensive
stance on earnings-resilient sectors, and higher-beta stocks, which are already embedding
very low expectations. We are overweight in Banks, Utilities, Wireless, Beverages,
Airlines, Media and Healthcare.
In Mexico, we have a mid-year target for the IPC-Mexbol of 22,600, suggesting 6%
upside from current levels. This is based on (i) our estimated index-weighted earnings
increase of 10% and (ii) normalized P/E multiple of 12.5x. Our bear scenario suggests
downside to 20,200, and our bull scenario upside to 24,700 (in line with our DCF-based
fair value for the index). We also see more downside than upside risk to our base-case
scenario.
Our economics team in Mexico anticipates continued challenging macro environment,
given the link of export sectors to the U.S. economy, particularly vehicles. Furthermore,
lower oil prices should exert incremental pressure on the fiscal accounts in 2010. Our
team forecasts GDP growth of 0.6% in 2009, following a year of already low growth
(1.4%). Although earnings growth in Mexican equities should substantially outpace
earnings growth in Brazil, it is coming from a low base. Furthermore, valuations are higher
in Mexico than in Brazil, relative to historical data and adjusted for country risk. In Mexico,
we are overweight in Wireless, Beverages, Media and Homebuilders.
The 15 stocks to start 2009 in Latam: Ambev, AMX, CCU, Cemig, Cesp, Copa Airlines,
CSN, GEO, Gol Airlines, Itaú-Unibanco, Modelo, Net, Renner, Televisa and Vivo.

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