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1 End of the Oil Era 1
Cause for Concern 1
Hubbert’s Curve 4
The Appeal of Hubbert’s Curve 10
Hubbert’s Success 11
US Oil Dependence Since Peak Production 12
Chapters Ahead 13
Notes and References 13
2 The Global Oil Landscape 16
Introduction 16
Defi nitions 17
Petroleum Composition and Energy Density 18
Why a Barrel Is a bbl 20
The Oil Business 20
OPEC 23
How Much Oil Is There? The USGS Assessment 26
From the USGS Assessment to 2009 29
Reserves 31
Where Is Oil Produced? 32
Where Is Oil Consumed? 33
Oil Imports 35
After Oil Is Produced 37
Oil Production Versus Consumption 38
Oil Quality 40
vi Contents
Oil Pricing by Quality 40
Gasoline 41
What Determines the Price of Gasoline at the Pump? 41
The Price of Gasoline 44
Gasoline Price Elasticity: What Happens When the Price
Goes Up (or Down)? 45
Gasoline Price Variability 47
Points to Take Away 49
Notes and References 51
3 The Historical Resource Depletion Debate 58
The Malthusian Doctrine 58
The Limits to Growth 59
The Oil Panics of 1916 and 1918 62
Panic Revisited: The Oil Crisis of the 1970s 63
Arguments Supporting Global Oil Depletion 65
Declining Oil Production in Countries in Addition to That
in the US 65
Production Exceeds Discoveries 66
Reserve and Endowment Estimates are Infl ated 67
Industry Exaggeration of Reserves 69
Fewer Giant Fields Discovered and Production is Declining 70
Decline in Discovery and Oil Drilling Suggests Onset of
Production Decline 72
Global Industrial Development and Oil Consumption 74
The Price of Oil is Increasing: Does This Indicate Scarcity? 77
Forecasts Support a Decline in Global Production Using
Extensions to Hubbert’s Approach 80
Summary 81
Notes and References 82
4 Counter-Arguments to Imminent Global Oil Depletion 87
Myth I: Hubbert’s Predicted Production Rates
Were Accurate 87
US Oil Production 88
The Bell-Shaped Curve 93
US Natural Gas Production 95
Global Oil Production 95
Myth II: A Decline in Production Necessarily Indicates Scarcity 98
Commodity Scarcity 98
Generalizing the Debate: Resource Economists versus
Neo-Malthusians 103
Contents vii
Back to Oil 110
Scarcity Rent 116
Myth III: Resource Assessments Provide Useful Endowment
Estimates 118
The Missing Mass Balance 123
Counter-Argument to OPEC and Industry Exaggeration of
Reserves 124
Myth IV: After So Much Exploration, There Is Little Oil Left
To Be Found 126
US Oil: Reserves 126
US Oil: Discoveries 128
Global Oil: Reserves 132
Global Oil: Discoveries 138
Russian and Global Arctic Oil 144
Myth V: The World Cannot Afford Increases in Oil Use as
Developing Nations Demand More Oil 146
Future Demand of Developing Nations 146
Oil Expenditures in the World Economy 153
Myth VI: There Are No Substitutes for Oil 156
The Gold Resource Pyramid 156
The Oil Resource Pyramid 160
The US and Global Oil Resource Pyramids 161
Three Unconventional Oil Substitutes 165
US heavy oil 165
Global heavy oil 166
US oil sands 168
Global oil sands 168
US oil shale 170
Global oil shale 172
Fossil Fuel Conversion: The Role of Gas and Coal 173
The Importance of Diesel 175
Synthetic Fuel from Coal and Natural Gas 175
Natural Gas Resources 177
Coal Resources 180
Chapter Summary 181
Notes and References 183
5 Beyond Panic 195
The Non-Renewable Resource Model 195
Where Is an Effi ciency Gain Possible? 196
Will Increases in Effi ciency Indeed Reduce Demand? 199
viii Contents
Two scenarios for developing nations 204
What Might Ultimately Substitute for Oil? 207
Consideration 1: Cost of dependence on imported oil 208
Consideration 2: Gasoline and atmospheric carbon dioxide
emissions 209
Consideration 3: Alternatives 210
Ethanol 211
Biodiesel 212
Leapfrogging to an ultimate substitute 213
Effects of a US move to oil alternatives 215
The State of Oil Resources 219
Ending Thoughts 221
Notes and References 225
Index 231
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