瑞士信贷：2009年美国软件行业展望

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Software Decoded 2009
ANNUAL
“Thank Goodness 2009 Is Finally Here!”
— Xen Master Says, “We’ll See…”
Software Represents the Least-cyclical IT Segment. We expect the current
downturn in software spending to be shallower as compared with other
technology sectors, given the high percentage of recurring revenue and flexible
cost structures that characterize the industry. For example, aggregate 2009
revenue estimates across software have declined by only 9.0% since June of
last year, as compared with the declines of 28.0%, 21.2%, and 20.3% in the
semiconductor, IT services, and telecom equipment sectors, respectively.
Furthermore, consensus estimates for the CSTI Software Index suggest a
revenue increase of 5.2% in 2009 compared to the preceding ten-year average
revenue increase of 12.3%, and revenue results for the CSTI Software Index
only increased by smaller percentages twice in the past ten years, beginning
with the downturn in 2001 at 3.9% and then the following year at 3.1%.
Still Playing Defense... In a year when the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and CSTI 400
Index fell by 38.5%, 40.5%, and 44.5%, respectively, the CSTI Software Index
decreased by 37.1% during 2008. Although software slightly outperformed the
market in 2008, we maintain an Overweight rating on the software industry
relative to other technology sectors at this point in the current uncertain
macroeconomic cycle, given that software (although a late-cycle spending
segment) represents one of the least-cyclical technology sectors.
…But Avoid Applications and Database Exposure. Although we view
software spending in aggregate as less cyclical, our channel checks indicate
that the economic downturn has dramatically slowed sales of new enterprise
applications licenses in recent months, and we believe that a weak pipeline
exists for new applications deployments heading into the first half of 2009,
which in turn negatively influences demand for database and middleware
products, on which these types of enterprise applications are deployed. As such,
our estimates for both Oracle and SAP remain below consensus.
What to Own When Switching to Offense? Although the software industry
represents a late-cycle but also less-cyclical segment of IT spending, investors
will eventually seek sectors with greater revenue beta than software, as
evidenced by the aforementioned estimate reductions. In terms of higher-beta
investments within software, while we believe that application software markets
will be more affected in a downturn than other segments of software (which
results in our currently cautious thesis on stocks exposed to this vertical), we
eventually expect application spending to accelerate out of the current
economic cycle, as the replacement cycle for application deployments
commences into the end of the decade.
Stock Picks for 2009. Microsoft represents our top pick among large-cap
software stocks, while our favorite small- and mid-cap software stocks include
Check Point Software Technologies, Citrix Systems, CA, BMC, Omniture, and
DemandTec. Conversely, we maintain our Underperform rating on VMware.

Table of Contents
Table of Contents 2
2009 Investment Summary 3
“Thank Goodness 2009 is Finally Here!” — Xen Master says, “We’ll see…” 5
Where are Consensus Estimates? And, How do Estimates Compare to Historicals? 6
Credit Suisse versus Consensus 8
What Segments of Software Are the Most Cyclical? 9
Macroeconomic Fluctuations Directly Impact Application Deployments 9
Database & Middleware Licenses More Tied to Applications Than You Think 11
What Segments of Software Could Be Sheltered? 14
Security 15
Virtualization 16
Stock Picks 17
Large-cap: 17
Small- and Mid-cap: 17
Product Cycles 19
Windows 7 19
Analysis of Leaked Window 7 Beta Suggests Improved Performance vs. Vista 19
Improved Functionality, But Similar Architecture to Vista 23
Windows 7 More Netbook-Friendly 23
Microsoft Office Web Applications 25
Oracle Fusion Applications 26
What to Own Coming out of the Cycle? 27
Sector Thesis Review/Update 29
Secular Thesis 29
Software Continues to Gain Share of the IT Budget 29
Share Gaining Subsegments of Software 32
Cyclical Thesis 33
Software Is a Late-cycle Technology Segment with Less Cyclical Variability than Other
Technology Sectors 33
Software Is Less Exposed to Consumer Downturns 35
Software’s Performance in Past Economic Cycles 36
Revenue Growth 36
Stock Price Performance 38
What’s Different about This Cycle? 40
International/Globalization 42
Maintenance Revenue Dampens Volatility 45
Consolidation = Fewer Vendors = Fewer Viability Concerns = Less Competition =
Better Pricing 47
Growing Importance of IT in Business Processes and Productivity 49
Seasonal Thesis 50
Software Spending Patterns 50
Seasonal Trading Patterns 51
Valuation 56
Historical Valuation Analysis 56
Sources and References 65

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