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【出版时间及名称】：2010年英国石油天然气开采与加工行业展望
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：29
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risk ..........................................................................................................................................3
FY-10 opportunity and risk ............................................................... 4
The exploration cycle ................................................................................................................4
FY-10 outlook ............................................................................................................................4
Top picks, recommendations and target prices ........................................................................5
NAVs and forward opportunity........................................................ 6
Distribution of value by stage of activity ...................................................................................7
NAV adjustments—risked total NAV up c5%............................................................................7
Earnings adjustments................................................................................................................7
Exploration in focus........................................................................... 8
Benchmarking exploration success rates..................................................................................9
The never-ending quest for materiality......................................................................................9
Size versus transformational opportunity................................................................................10
FY-10 newsflow diary...................................................................... 12
Targets & recommendations .......................................................... 15
Cairn - Greenland key… but strong underpinning from India ..................................................15
Tullow – Tweneboa key in H1 .................................................................................................16
Salamander… not cheap, but very material H1 E&A leverage ................................................17
Premier… solid tangible core value ........................................................................................17
Dana—inexpensive but fragmented........................................................................................18
JKX… looking for continuing evidence of production stabilization..........................................18
M&P… falling core NAV detracts from exploration potential..................................................18
Key risks to valuation and recommendations..........................................................................19
Appendix A – value and risk ........................................................... 20
What risking is appropriate?....................................................................................................21
Appendix B-Reserves ...................................................................... 22
Reserves ................................................................................................................................22
Contingent resources..............................................................................................................23
Prospective resources ............................................................................................................23
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