发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月英国宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：56
【目录或简介】：
UK Economics and
Strategy
UK Economy, Fiscal and Gilt
Market Outlook 2010
An interesting year or two ahead: We take an
in-depth look at the prospects for the UK’s economy,
public finances and Gilt markets. There are significant
challenges – particularly fiscal and monetary policy
tightening against a backdrop of a still highly indebted
household sector, weak credit growth and lacklustre
GDP growth. A tough mix, and one complicated by a
General Election that must be held by June.
Not all gloom: Our analysis reveals some grounds for
optimism, which sets us at variance with often-heard
requiems for the economy. Some of these key debates
are as follows:
1) Economy – demand worries overdone: While the
UK recovery is likely to be sub-par, we think it would be
unwise to write off the prospects for a stronger recovery.
A ‘double-dip’ would require a significant policy misstep.
2) Interest Rates – first rate hike ‘later rather than
sooner’: On the back of a sub-par recovery we don’t
expect monetary policy tightening until the end of 2010.
3) Gilt Yields – ‘solvency’ worries vastly overdone:
The prospective demand and supply ‘imbalance’ will be
less important for Gilt yields than many investors think.
The ‘imbalances’ will not be as dramatic as many expect
and Gilt yields have historically been driven more by
economic conditions.
4) Equities – bond yields are a key focus for 2010:
The prospect of higher bond yields is the main reason
why we remain cautious on UK equities.
General Election – substantial bearing on fiscal and
monetary policy outlook: Whatever the outcome, we
expect significant fiscal tightening to begin in 2011.
There could even be some silver linings: long-term
beneficial decisions may be taken and fiscal tightening
doesn’t have to severely damage GDP growth.