发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
driver of growth in China over the next decade, in our
view. While we expect urbanization to bring about
meaningful changes to the structure of Chinese
economy in terms of domestic vs. external demand,
consumption vs. investment, and service vs. industrial
sectors, the most profound impact, in our view, will be
reflected in the regional dimension of the economy:
narrowing the gaps among the three economies in one
country.
Why now? Crisis leads to reform. While
Market-oriented reform, Opening-up, and Urbanization
(or “MOU”) are the three pillars to China’s remarkable
economic success over the past three decades,
progress on urbanization has thus far been largely a
result of passive adaption to a rapidly-changing reality
that is being shaped by market-oriented reform and
opening-up. The Great Recession has made it more
imperative for China to promote domestic demand with a
view to bringing about sustainable growth over the long
run. Against this backdrop, urbanization—where reform
initiatives have been lagging—is likely to be given a
greater role in helping deliver continued strong growth,
especially as reform dividends stemming from
opening-up appear to be peaking. To this end, Chinese
authorities have recently begun to call for an
acceleration of urbanization by removing some of the
barriers to rural-urban migration.
Implications: We expect the rapid urbanization over the
previous decade to be maintained or even accelerate
into the next decade despite potential moderation in
overall economic growth. We estimate that urbanization
in 2011-2020 would bring about Rmb3.5-5.0tn in
incremental consumption (or about 10-14% of 2009
GDP) and Rmb16-21tn (or about 45-63% of GDP)
incremental investment. In particular, we believe
regional economies with low urbanization stand to
benefit from this proactive policy drive for urbanization.