发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：41
【目录或简介】：
Main message: We now see a roadmap for ending deflation.
Patience remains the byword until 2013, but we also see
scenarios for faster, or slower, than expected progress
depending on policy.
What’s new: In addition to projecting the trajectory for
underlying inflation (excluding fresh food, energy and
institutional factors) from the output gap, we use wages and
asset prices to formulate qualitative judgments, but ultimately
the outlook remains grim. However, policy still has the potential
to alter the path for prices, either upward or downward.
Policy implications: One means of stimulating prices that
interests us is the reflationary policy independent of fiscal
expansion. In concrete terms this would mean achieving an
inflation target through (1) further monetary accommodation, (2)
proactively promoting a weaker yen, and/or (3) taking steps to
stimulate asset prices. Supply side reform is also important.
Market implications: If the government and BoJ adopt an
inflation target, and if measures for its attainment gain the
markets’ trust, we think the year-end forecast of our currency
strategy team for ¥109/$ would be more realistic. For TOPIX we
continue to look to 1,100, the forecast of our equity strategy
team. Even so, we see limited scope for steepening of long-term
rates given brisk demand for duration and a return to fiscal
rehabilitation.
Risks: One bull case scenario is the global economy
overheating and refueling inflation for primary commodities.
Another is an upward shift in the markets’ medium-term inflation
expectations due to drastic policy measures by the
government/BoJ. Bear case scenarios include a downward shift
in households’ and companies’ medium-term inflation
expectations, stemming from demographic causes, or the asset
market slump spreading its tendrils to general consumer prices
as a result of sovereign risk or tighter financial regulations.