发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
China is winding down fiscal stimulus
for new construction projects
 Banks are also cutting lending to new
projects by local governments
 All of this will cool growth in fixed-asset
investment
China has already started withdrawing stimulus for new
infrastructure projects, reflecting Beijing’s concern about
overheating and inflation. The central government plans to
slow this year’s fiscal spending growth to 6.3% from 24%
last year by curtailing new infrastructure projects.
Meanwhile, banks are cutting lending to new construction
works by local governments, though they continue to finance
existing projects. All this implies a slowdown in
infrastructure investment this year. Since infrastructure
accounted for nearly 60% of growth in total fixed-asset
investment last year, the anticipated slowdown in
infrastructure investment should lead to slower growth in
total fixed-asset investment in 2H10.
Highlights of the month
 The National People’s Congress (NPC) in early March
reiterated the 8% GDP and 3% CPI targets, as well as a
less expansionary central fiscal outlay (6.3% planned
growth this year vs. 24% last year), with the focus of
spending shifting from infrastructure to education and
healthcare and other pro-consumption areas.
 We recently revised our 2010 GDP forecast to 10%
(from 9.5%) to reflect a faster than expected export
recovery and output growth. We also lifted our CPI
forecast to 3.1% from 2.6%. All this points to the rising
risk of a rate hike in coming weeks.
 Trade deficit: March’s anticipated trade deficit may be
temporary. Yet it unveils a secular trend of falling trade
surplus. This weakens the case for the renminbi’s
undervaluation. All this, plus Premier Wen’s recent
statement that the renminbi is not undervalued, is likely
to close off the possibility of any significant revaluation
in the renminbi in the near term.
Unwinding the infrastructure
boom 3
Charts 6
GDP 7
Industrial production 9
Private consumption 11
Fixed investment 13
Trade 15
Prices 17
Commodity prices 19
Money supply & credit 21
Interest & exchange rates 23
Employment & income 25
Asset markets 27
Data & forecasts 29
Disclosure appendix 31
Disclaimer 32