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We believe Apple will adopt OLED displays for the iPhone next year, and could be used in 1 out of 3 iPhone models We assess that sole OLED display supplier Samsung could support up to 79mil units in 2017
1. We forecast an OLED-induced re-acceleration in the iPhone cycle. Other innovations we think Apple will make wider use of include dual cam across 2 out of 3 models
2. For all those reasons, we remain Positive in APAC Tech on the Apple supply chain into 2017
3. We are more cautious on Android smartphones:
• The Chinese top OEMs have not reduced procurement after CNY; but (1) they could be outperforming others, and (2) component shortages is leading to new models shipment delays and hence Sell In support in 2Q (different from Sell Through upside);
• We are similarly concerned that initial procurement ests for Samsung smartphones may end up on the higher side;
4. We have downgraded our view on Memory Semis to Neutral from Positive as we see signs of the DRAM cycle nearing a peak, whilst improvement in production yields in 3D NAND in 2018 could also lead to oversupply
5. Longer term, we believe the OLED investment cycle will last several years…
6. … And see significant opportunities for Semis in High Performance Computing – supported by how fast AI will become pervasive in Consumer and Auto Tech
2017 Feb - UBS - APAC Tech Strategy, Semis, Displays & Tech Hardware：Will Fun.pdf
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