目前关于2月1日的加息利率是35个基点。这非常可能是高估了，PPI数据出来后，快速分析如下：

• 总体数据加速下跌。市场预期核心PPI下跌7.2，实际读数6.5；
• 细项数据更加让人有信心。PPI数据总体分成商品和服务。我们分别分析如下。

Product detail: In October, 60 percent of the increase in prices for final demand goods is attributable to the index for gasoline, which rose 5.7 percent. Prices for diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, residential electric power, chicken eggs, and oil field and gas field machinery also advanced. In contrast, the index for passenger cars declined 1.5 percent. Prices for gas fuels and for processed young chickens also fell. 也就是说，商品部分的价格上涨，主要是来自于汽油，柴油，蔬菜和电力的价格上涨，我们知道，随着裂解利润进一步下降，证明这个部分的价格驱动很可能会迅速下降；

Final demand services: The index for final demand services fell 0.1 percent in October, the first decline since moving down 0.2 percent in November 2020. Leading the October decrease, margins fo