美国通胀目前的状态是：住房和医疗价格尚未拐头，所以核心通胀依然面临上升压力。或者说，通胀下行的加速度还没有启动。第二、房价上涨的幅度的确非常大。这是我一直在思考试图去理解的问题。今天阅读了联储两篇论文，得到了初步结论。

• 美国房价处于轻微泡沫阶段，但是已经向下拐头

泡沫的测量指标主要是 price to rent 和 price to income

• 居家办公是推升房价的主要动力，影响系数超过一半

This variation in pre-pandemic remote work is helpful in that it allows us to isolate and quantify the effects of pandemic remote work on house prices. Figure 3 plots house price growth within three groups of CBSAs, organized by pre-pandemic remote work shares. We see that house price growth is essentially identical for the three CBSA groups before the pandemic. However, by late 2020, the CBSAs with higher shares of remote work had significantly higher house price growth than those with less remote work. The difference continued to expand into 2021.