美联储初现政策分歧

全球宏观投资

致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

任何一个团体,里面的成员都有观念差异。我这次发现联储成员一个非常有趣的现象:那就是曾经极端的鸽派现在转眼成为极端的鹰牌,而相对中性的成员依然保持中性。这说明,极端的东西,本质上是一样的。昨天乔治最有水平的一段话如下:“We have done a lot, and I think we have to be very mindful that our policy decisions often operate on a lag. We have to watch carefully how that’s coming through.”

Fed Officials Offer Mixed Signals on Size of September Rate Hike

  • George says hike pace under debate, Bullard backs big move
  • Fed has ‘done a lot’ on policy tightening, George says

ByMatthew Boesler,Zoe SchneeweissandMaría Paula Mijares Torres

(Bloomberg) —

US central bankers offered divergent signals over the size of the next interest-rate hike, with St. Louis’sJames Bullardurging another 75 basis-point move while Kansas City’sEsther Georgestruck a more cautious tone.

Bullard, who is one of the most hawkish policy makers at the US central bank, told the Wall Street Journal in aninterviewpublished Thursday that he favored going big again, arguing “we should continue to move expeditiously to a level of the policy rate that will put significant downward pressure on inflation.”

Read More: Stocks Struggle for Direction in Choppy Session

“I don’t really see why you want to drag out interest rate increases into next year,” he said.

The Fed in July raised the target range for its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25% to 2.5%, following a similar-sized hike in June to cool the hottest inflation in 40 years. Officials have since signaled that either 50, or another 75 basis points, were on the table for their Sept. 20-21 meeting, depending on the data. They get fresh monthly readings on inflation and employment between now and then.

Investors have not been put off by the threat of higher Fed rates. The S&P 500 index of US stocks has risen about 9% since the July gathering.

Both Bullard and George are voters this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. But George, who hosts the Fed’s annual policy retreat next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has sounded more dovish than Bullard in recent months, after many years of being viewed as a hawk.

She backed the July hike but dissented in June in favor of a smaller half-point increase,citingconcern the larger move could stoke policy uncertainty. Her remarks Thursday continued to tilt dovish.

“I think the case for continuing to raise rates remains strong. The question of how fast that has to happen is something my colleagues and I will continue to debate, but I think the direction is pretty clear,” she said in Independence, Missouri.

“We have done a lot, and I think we have to be very mindful that our policy decisions

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