美联储是这个地球上最好的央行，可能没有之一。因为美联储是按照汉密尔顿良性社会建立的机构，是跨党派的专业机构，所以，总体上，美联储的信誉是很好的。这个说法的含义是，即便美联储犯错误，更多也是认知框架、机制设置、偶尔的个人因素的错误，并不存在系统性的错误偏差。

这次的全球通胀反转交易，从技术上，盈利空间上，要求的全面素质上，都是近年来少见的一次大型交易机会。涉及到几乎所有全球宏观最核心的交易资产，比如纳指，罗素2000，USDJPY，EURUSD，USDNOK，美国2年债到30年债，德债，意大利债，黄金等。中间还有FED,BOJ,BOE,ECB等的不断扰动，几乎每一个经济数据都可以扰动全球金融市场，联储一个官员的言论可以让30年美债下跌2%。而市场情绪和参与者近乎神经质般的反应也让这个交易显得困难重重，特别是高杠杆的全球宏观趋势交易。所以，这是一个对交易技巧和专注力都要求极高的交易。

下面Barkin的这个采访，我认为是最典型的联储官员思维。美债应声下落，美元上涨，但是，半小时后，市场似乎不再那么激烈的反应，而罗素2000领涨美股，也说明了市场信心的强盛。

Fed’s Barkin Urges Keeping Rates High to Avoid 1970s-Style Error

• Inflation at 2% target needed for months to be sure, he says
• Richmond Fed leader cites research work of Marvin Goodfriend

By Steve Matthews

(Bloomberg) —

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkinsaid the central bank needs to keep raising interest rates until it’s clear inflation is running at its 2% target even if the economy weakens to avoid a policy mistake similar to the 1970s.

“I’d like to see a period of sustained inflation under control,” Barkin said in an interview on CNBC Friday. “Until we do that, I think we are going to just have to continue to move rates into restrictive territory.”

While Fed officials view 2.5% as a neutral rate — the level that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy — Barkin said there’s uncertainty about the level and his goal was to have interest rates higher than expected inflation, or positive real rates.

Barkin is the latest Fed official to call f