金融开放后,不平等是加剧还是减少了?

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致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

回答类似这类问题,只能用实证数据来回答。而且,即便实证数据,也不一定可以完整的回答。但基于数据的结论一定比基于自我想象的结论靠谱得多。BIS关于这个问题的最新研究成果。简单说,金融开放后,短期内有可能加大社会的不平等,但是长期来看,金融越开放,社会越平等。

Summary

Focus

Recent increases in inequality have prompted a lot of interest in what causes it. Existing research has identified international financial openness as one of the main potential drivers of income inequality. Nevertheless, the evidence has not been conclusive so far. This is largely due to the use of very different measures and methods across studies. Most papers have focused on legal restrictions on capital flows as a measure of openness (“de jure measures”). The few that have examined measures based on actual external financial positions (“de facto measures”) have used only a subset of the key metrics.

Contribution

We conduct a comprehensive empirical examination of the link between inequality and external financial openness for a sample of 48 countries between 1991 and 2013. In contrast to most existing studies, we focus on de facto rather than de jure measures of financial openness. Furthermore, we examine not only a key aggregate openness measure – gross external liabilities – but also its main components: foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio equity, portfolio debt and other investment.

Findings

We show that the relationship between financial openness and inequality varies considerably over time and across the main components of total external liabilities. In emerging market economies

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