这是今年风险资产一个真正可能的触发因素。这个问题的复杂性在于，俄国已经屯兵10万到了边境。这里面就存在很多变数。

Biden Expects Russia to ‘Move In’ on Ukraine, Warns Putin Again

Sanctions response will be a ‘disaster’ for Russia, Biden says

‘Minor incursion’ might prompt a lesser response, he saysBy Jennifer Epstein and Nick Wadhams

(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden said he thinks Vladimir Putin doesn’t want a full-blown war but will “move in” on Ukraine after amassing 100,000 troops on its border, part of an extraordinarily blunt assessment of Russian intentions and the West’s likely response.

“I’m not so sure he has — is certain — about what he’s going to do,” Biden said of his Russian counterpart during a nearly two hour-long news conference Wednesday marking his first year in office. “My guess is he will move in, he has to do something.”

While the president said the U.S. and its European allies are united on making sure Russia faces “severe economic consequences,” Biden acknowledged what his top aides have so far said only in private: that NATO allies are divided about what to do if Russia takes action against Ukraine that falls short of an invasion.

“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades,” Biden said. “And it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do.” If Putin chooses to continue or ramp up cyber attacks on Ukraine, Biden said, “we can respond the same way, with cyber.”

WATCH: “I’m not so sure he has, is certain, about what he’s going to do,” Biden says. “My guess is he will move in, he has to do something.”

Biden’s mixed messaging on Ukraine will be seen by his political opponents and some adversaries as giving Putin a green light to, at the very least, continue harassing behavior against Ukraine. For the same reason, his comments could cause heartburn among European allies and his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, who was in Kyiv Wednesday seeking to show support for Ukraine’s leaders ahead of a meeting with Russia’s foreign minister on Friday.

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After first suggesting the U.S. might not respond as forcefully if Putin launches a minor incursion, Biden later sought to clarify that any invasion would prompt sanctions, while other Russian actions such as cyberattacks would provoke a different response. And he struck an alarmist tone, saying he was worried “this could get out of hand, very easily get out of hand,” given Russia’s status as a nuclear state.

Joining NATO

Nor were those the only surprises from Biden. He also said something else his top aides and allies have been reluctant to concede: that Ukraine is unlikely to be admitted to NATO any time soon.

“The likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely based on much more work they have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things going on, and whether or not major allies in the West would vote to bring Ukraine in right now,” Blinken said.

A formal promise to never allow Ukraine into the Western military alliance is a key demand of Putin, who wants the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to withdraw to its borders prior to 1997. The alliance has repeatedly said that demand is a non-starter, and it’s not clear if Biden’s remarks — inadvertent or not — will be enough to assuage Putin.

Even as Biden’s news conference continued, officials at the National Security Council sought to clarify the president’s remarks. Spokeswoman Emily Hornesaid on Twitter that the president “was referring to the difference bet