(Bloomberg Opinion) — 

The prince warned that worldwide oil production could fall by 30 million barrels a day by the end of the decade because there is not enough being spent on the exploration for and development of new resources. That implies production of less than 70 million barrels a day.

Of course, he is talking his own book. The kingdom holds vast reserves of oil beneath its sands and under the shallow waters of the Persian Gulf — and it wants to see a healthy market for that oil for years to come.

But his warning isn’t entirely self-serving. Saudi Arabia’s oil riches aren’t open to foreign investors, so his call for more spending is actually aimed at encouraging competition with the kingdom.

This serves as a recognition of two things: First, the world’s need for affordable oil isn’t going to disappear anytime soon; and second, despite its oil reserves, Saudi Arabia can’t supply it all by itself.

Even the International Energy Agency, which has been incorrectly cited as calling for an end to new oil developments, sees oil demand remaining near pre-pandemic levels by 2030.

Even with the environmental policies that had been announced prior to the United Nations COP26 Climate Change Conference in November, the agency saw 2030 oil demand at 500,000 barrels a day — just 0.5% below its pre-pandemic level. In its “Sustainable Development” scenario — which sees advanced economies reach net zero emissions by 2050, China around 2060, and all other countries by 2070 at the latest — the drop by the end of the current decade is estimated to be just 9 million barrels a day, or 9%. That would still leave the world needing about 90 million barrels a day of oil by 2030, a supply shortfall of 21 million barrels a day — more oil than was consumed by the U.S. in 2019 — according to the Saudi minister.

So if he’s right, we’re in for a tough time. But is he right? Have potential investors been so bullied, or so scared, by environmental campaigners that they are unwilling to sink capital in new oil production?

The kingdom — holder of the world’s largest oil reserves — is investing to boost its own output, but only planning to add another 1 million barrels a day in the next few years. Other countries in the Middle East, such as