一早看到中文世界关于联储会议的评估，很多评论者显然并不关注美国经济和政策的动态变化，只是偶感而已。这个偶感，跟流感一样。如果对联储的认知是有框架的，那么我们就可以依据框架对最新的看法进行合理评估，否则就只是情感交流。

我们之前认为，联储有可能因为短暂的通胀冲击而过快加息，这是2022年一个主要的宏观转折可能点。昨天联储的会议，基本排除了这种可能，而且对经济、通胀、就业做出了相当精准的评估。让人不得不佩服联储的认知和执行能力，鲍威尔进一步巩固了他做为全球最杰出央行长的地位。

我们可以看一下鲍威尔的几个关键亮点。1、Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus.   短短的一句话表明了联储的经济和通胀评估框架。并不会被当下的通胀数据所扰动。2、With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment。明确了优先支持就业目标，而不是通胀目标。 3、 Notwithstanding the effects of the virus and supply constraints, FOMC participants continue to foresee rapid growth; as shown in our Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection for real GDP growth stands