游轮股票的一个分析

全球宏观投资

致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

目前看,宏观因子集中到:复航航线、再融资两个事情上,所以更多是震荡行情,底部买比较合适,市场何时真正突破,需要一些标志性的事件

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Norwegian Still Needs Cash After Latest Financing: ECM Watch
By Drew Singer

(Bloomberg) — 

The latest share sale by Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is likely just one in a series of capital markets maneuvers to fill its coffers heading into the third year of the pandemic.

Norwegian climbed 1.5% on Wednesday after pricing stock and exchangeable note offerings overnight that were seen by some analysts as helpful to its recovery. Still, one of the largest cruise lines by fleet size will probably be back to raise more equity sooner rather than later after the pair of deals during this week’s spike in stock offerings, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jody Lurie.

“The cash situation still remains a pressing issue,” Lurie said in an interview. “Equity is possible as an avenue to grow the cash pool without growing the debt burden.”

Lurie estimates the company will run out of cash by the end of next year — barring any bookings momentum from a return to service — with 2022 revenue only recovering to one-third of 2019 levels.

After frequently tapping equity capital markets during the first year of the pandemic, cruise stocks have so far been more selective in 2021. They’ve brought just four follow-on offerings this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, compared to eight last year. Two of this year’s four cruise line offerings were in Norwegian.

Norwegian’s shares remain down 5.9% since announcing this week’s offerings on Monday after the market closed, a sell-off that spread to peers including Royal Carribbean Cruises Ltd. and Carnival Corp. But, according to Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski, the price action shows the market is misinterpreting this week’s transactions. He has a buy rating on the stock.

“We knew investors would panic and assume that any cruise related name would probably be looking to raise equity at some point in the near-future,” he wrote in a note. “However, after talking with NCLH management about the proposed transactions, it is very clear to us that these transactions are an absolute positive as the company isn’t increasing their diluted share count and is materially lowering their overall borrowing costs.”

Postmarket launches of U.S. secondary offerings:

  • CymaBay (CBAY)
  • EyePoint (EYPT)
  • Fathom (FTHM)
  • Kraft Heinz (KHC)
  • Lantronix (LTRX)

More ECM situations Bloomberg is following:

  • Rivian’s IPO Is Ultimate Validation of Tesla: Matthew Winkler — Rivian Automotive Inc.’s blockbuster initial public offering on Nov. 9—the biggest since Facebook’s in 2012—was a sign of how far the electric vehicle industry has come. It also represented the ultimate confirmation of Tesla Inc.’s success. Click here to keep reading
  • Yogurt Maker Chobani Files for IPO Showing Sales Gain, Risks — Chobani Inc. filed for an initial public offering, disclosing steady growth as it continues to build on sales of its namesake yogurt brand and add newer products such as oat milk. Click here to keep reading
  • Beyond Meat’s Delayed Chicken Launch Extends Post-IPO Woes — This was supposed to be the year of the fake chicken. Click here to keep reading

Performance of Today’s Additional Offerings:

  • CubeSmart (CUBE US) +5.33% vs offering price
    • Deal value pre-shoe: $688.5 million
    • Offer price: $51
    • Primary shares: 13.5 million
    • Pricing discount: -4.35%
    • Industry: REIT
    • Bookrunners: Wells Fargo Securities (Left), BMO Capital Markets, Barclays Bank Plc (Us), BofA Securities, Jefferies and Truist Securities
  • NorthWestern (NWE US) +2.32% vs offering price
    • Deal value pre-shoe: $325 million
    • Offer price: $53.50
    • Primary shares: 4.67 million
    • Secondary shares: 1.4 million
    • Pricing discount: -3.43%
    • Industry: Electric Utilities
    • Bookrunners: BofA Securities (Left), JP Morgan Securities and Wells Fargo Securities
  • Postal Realty Trust (PSTL US) +6.41% vs offerin
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