到目前来看，我们对美国通胀的几个关键判断都是成立的。第一，通胀是暂时的，冲击性的，第二、高点可能在今年秋天。但是有一个问题是我之前没有想到的，那就是通胀在全球的分布很可能是不均衡的。这篇分析指出了一种可能性，那就是脆弱国家面对一次性通胀的时候，有可能变成一场灾难，而这里面的典型就是 巴西 印度 土耳其 阿根廷 尼日利亚。现在需要把这三个国家的通胀监控起来了。如果通胀在这些国家成为相对持续性的现象，那么，EM资产将会面临更加困难的局面。

The U.S. Federal Reserve, like many other central banks, sees inflation from the reopening of economies disrupted by the pandemic to be “transitory,” and it’s not expected to raise interest rates until at least next year. Latin America’s policy makers, by contrast, are rushing to reverse ultra-low borrowing costs. In the last five weeks, central banks in Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Chile and even Uruguay have increased rates, while many expect Colombia to follow soon. Latin America was perhaps hit harder than any other region by Covid-19 and is experiencing a quick economic rebound that puts pressure on prices. Other reasons for the difference, though, may have to do with the continent’s high levels of inequality, informality and political instability — together with a history of inflationary bouts deeply etched into the collective economic memory.

What’s been driving inflation?

Around the world, prices have been rising faster than usual as the end of many pandemic-related restrictions released pent-up consumer demand that disrupted supply chains have struggled to meet. Some factors have affected Latin America in particular. For instance, the