BIS出版了一篇99页的论文，跟我们在日常工作中的实际体验非常接近。货币政策对经济体的影响，有非常多细节，这种细节在凯恩斯，在哈耶克和佛里德曼那里并没有得到清晰的讨论。全球产业链分工、货币政策在各国不同的影响，都会带来实际的经济后果。推荐所有圈友都阅读这篇论文。

Summary

Focus

When a firm cannot easily substitute financially constrained clients or suppliers in the face of an adverse monetary policy shock, the fall in demand or supply may create bottlenecks and induce the firm to cut back its activity. We refer to this as the “ripple effects” of monetary policy. This paper studies how conventional monetary policy transmits through the demand and supply of intermediate goods and the role of input-output linkages as transmission channels.

Contribution

We use detailed information on existing firm supply chains to investigate the ripple effects of monetary policy. We study the demand channel by analysing how firms’ sales react to changes in monetary conditions as a function of their clients’ financial health. We also study the cost channel by analysing the reaction of firms’ purchases to changes in monetary conditions as a function of their suppliers’ financial health. What is new in our approach is that we allow for monetary policy to work through the balance sheets of the firms’ clients and suppliers, as well as through the firms themselves.

Findings

Our main findings a