美元持续下跌的另外一个动力

全球宏观投资

致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

一直在思考一个问题,全球经济向好的时候,美元总是弱势,这除了联储的货币政策以外,其实还有一个重大推动力,那就是套息交易,即美元作为融资货币,美元作为融资货币的优势是市场更为广阔,所以虽然单从利率方面,欧日货币更有优势,但是考虑现实中很多新兴市场国家更加需要美元(跟全球价值链分工有直接关系),从而导致美元成为首选的融资货币。

Dollar Carry Strategy Will Spur Yuan to Lead EMs Higher
By Kyoungwha Kim

(Bloomberg) — 

Carry strategies that use USD as the funding currency look set to gain popularity in 2021. That should enhance the yuan’s mojo and put it in the vanguard of emerging currency rallies.
The expansion of money supply by the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ has taken real yields for those economies deeply negative, a stark contrast to China where inflation-adjusted rates are going higher amid the PBOC’s restrained stimulus.
The growing

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