本周选举如果没有结果，美股面临大跌压力_经管之家 WEB 3.0 社区，学术博客

本周选举如果没有结果，美股面临大跌压力

: 全球宏观投资; 致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

跟我的看法非常一致。暴跌后将是买入机会。如果很快有清晰结果，那么依然是上涨概率更大。

SPY Could Slump 8% in a Contested Election, Susquehanna Says (1)

Delayed result could be a big market-moving event: Murphy
Removal of election uncertainty could be a positive, he says

By Katherine Greifeld

(Bloomberg) —

There are hints in the options market that anything but a clear winner in this week’s U.S. presidential election could spell trouble for stocks.

At-the-money straddles on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) — a strategy that entails buying a put and a call option at the same strike price and expiry date — currently imply a 4.2% move by Friday. Given PredictIt’s 75% odds that a winner will be declared by the end of the week, that suggests SPY could plunge by 8.4% should the results be contested, Susquehanna International Group’s Chris Murphy wrote in a note Monday. That compares with a 2.8% advance on a clear winner.

Volatility markets had been bracing for a too-close-to-call election amid a surge in mail-in voting and President Donald Trump’s reluctance to

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本周选举如果没有结果，美股面临大跌压力

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