目前摇摆州的民调数据

全球宏观投资

致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔
2016年后,民调公司已经有了相当改善来提高数据的质量。而美国的选举人票制度,使得关键州的数据更加重要。
Biden Leads Trump Nationally, in Key States in Final Days (1)
  • Many say Democrat is the one more able to unify the country
  • Analysts say Trump still has narrow yet viable path to victory
By Marissa Horn and Deana Kjuka

(Bloomberg) — 

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in a series of polls released Sunday, remaining ahead nationally and in battleground states, although some state races remain extremely close.

The New York Times/Siena College polls showed Biden ahead in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin, all key swing states that Trump carried in 2016.

A CNN poll showed Biden up in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina, also states Trump won in 2016. In all four states, Biden was seen as the more empathetic candidate and the one more able to unify the country.

An ABC/Washington Post poll had less good news for Biden, showing Trump narrowly ahead in Florida, 50%-48%. The same poll had Biden well ahead, 51%-44% in Pennsylvania.

Emerson College released battleground state polls that showed Biden up in Michigan, but the race in Ohio and Iowa within the margin of error and essentially tied.

While these polls show Biden running better than Hillary Clinton did four years ago, analysts say Trump still has a narrow but viable path to an election win through the states considered “toss ups” by nonpartisan election handicappers.

National polls cannot indicate a winner, since presidents are chosen by state, but they can suggest trends. An NBC/

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