美国大选目前的一些数据支撑

全球宏观投资

致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

感谢杨冰兄,提醒我关注投票率。因为这个指标,我认为市场应该为拜登获胜准备交易条件了。真正智识上的好朋友,是可以提供智力支撑和互动的。

 

Trump Keeps Cool in Debate Yet Gains Little Ground on Biden
  • Trump didn’t score dramatic victory to turn race around
  • Biden resisted taking bait on corruption charges from Trump
By Justin Sink

(Bloomberg) — 

President Donald Trump turned in a more composed and disciplined debate performance Thursday night, offering a marked contrast to the chaos and fury that defined his first battle with Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

But even as the president earned credit for engaging in a more civil exchange of views — and maybe even brought a few doubters back into his camp — there was little reason to think he had scored the kind of dramatic victory he badly needed to turn around a race polls show he’s losing.

Trump’s supporters had spent more than a week teeing up an attack on the foreign business dealings of Biden’s son Hunter, but standing next to Biden during the final presidential debate in Nashville, Trump failed to make it stick. Biden managed to flip it back on Trump, pointing out news reports showing it was the president’s company that had a bank account in China, not him.

Biden’s best moments occurred when he resisted taking the bait as Trump accused him of being corrupt, leading Biden to call out Trump for failing to release a single tax return. “What are you hiding?” Biden said.

The former vice president was less sure-footed elsewhere in the debate. When under pressure from Trump, he appeared to endorse the eventual elimination of the oil industry. Trump immediately seized on Biden’s remark for voters in all-important Pennsylvania, where Biden’s position on reducing fracking wins him few friends in a state where fracking employs thousands of people.

Read More: Trump, Biden Swap Claims on Climate, Virus: Debate Fact Check

After the first debate devolved into a mess of cross-talk and bitterness, this session was notable for its substance, as voters could watch the two men lay out their closing arguments on almost every topic — the coronavirus, immigration, race relations — and see the clear choice they face less than two weeks before Election Day.

Trump scored when he resurrected the parts of his persona that won him fans in 2016, contrasting his outsider’s stance to Biden’s 47 years in public life. And on the coronavirus, Trump accused Biden of supporting further economic shutdowns that have crushed the U.S. economy.

Even as the president’s allies crowed that the president’s tone could bring reluctant voters back home – or erase the memory of a first debate where even his debate coach said he was “too hot” – indications were that he had done little to change the underlying dynamics.

A CNN instant poll of the debate showed 53% of respondents thought Biden had prevailed, versus just 39% for Trump – a result roughly mirroring the president’s current deficit in the polls. Respondents showed essentially no change in how they conceived of the candidates’ favorability.

Trump’s steadier approach occasionally faltered, such as when he attacked the IQ level of immigrants seeking asylum and offered a scattered defense of his foreign financial entanglements and tax payments. Democrats also seized on Trump at one point seemingly belittling family dinner-table conversations during times of economic strife, after Biden looked into the camera and made a direct appeal to those voters.

Earlier: Trump, Biden Spar Over Graft, Covid, Racism But Keep Gloves On

Biden is leading Trump by 7.9% nationally in the RealClearPolitics polling average, and FiveThirtyEight’s predictive model gave the former vice president an 87% chance of victory heading into Thursday night’s contest. Trump has not led in a public poll of Pennsylvania – perhaps the most crucial battleground state – since May, and recent surv

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