The S&P 500, which is about 0.6% off the all-time high of 3,386 on Feb. 19, could hit the new record this week. Fiscal and monetary support has been massive and swift, and risky assets tend to perform well in the early part of a business cycle when there’s pent-up demand and rebuilding of inventory. The S&P 500 is still following the path of the 2009 recovery, despite a vast difference in valuation.

If we do reach a fresh new high, it would be the