BIS出版了2020年一季度全球跨境信贷统计，与我的经济周期先行指数指示的方向非常一致，即如果没有疫情冲击，2020年会是一个非常好的年景。疫情期间，跨境信贷停滞。但是我们可以合理推测，随着全球经济重启，全球跨境信贷会再次活跃。

Global cross-border bank lending surged in Q1 2020

Against the backdrop of the rapidly escalating Covid-19 pandemic, banks’ global cross-border claims surged during the first quarter of 2020. This partly reflected a seasonal pattern: over the past decade, these claims have tended to grow more strongly in the first quarter of each year, following recurrent end-of-year balance sheet contractions. Yet, even after such effects are discounted, the recent expansion was exceptional: cross-border claims, as tracked in the BIS locational banking statistics (LBS), grew (on a break- and exchange rate-adjusted basis) by $2.6 trillion (Graph 1, left-hand panel).¹ This increased their year-on-year growth rate to 10% at end-March 2020, up from 6% a quarter before that and 5% a year earlier (centre panel). The overall increase in claims was driven mainly by int