仔细观察这几天美股的市场变化，非常清晰的结论是：资金正在大量买入 能源 零售 酒店 邮轮 航空 物流 类股票。只能说，资金永远是最聪明的，当大家还在恐慌的时候，聪明钱已经开始入场扫货了，而且非常急迫，毫不手软。

Cruise Stocks Can Survive Near-Zero Sales Through 1Q21: Nomura

By Janet Freund(Bloomberg) — 

Royal Caribbean, Carnival and Norwegian Cruise have liquidity/borrowing capacity to survive “near-zero revenues” through the first quarter of 2021, according to Nomura Instinet’s Harry Curtis.

• This is based on the following assumptions:
  • Recent/projected financings from the cruise operators, which provide a “cash-burn cushion” through the end of 2020
  • Cash requirements for redemption of advanced ticket deposits: 40% of 4Q 2019 balances for RCL and NCLH and 55% for CCL
  • Capex declines of a minimum of 50% compared to budget plans from earlier this year
  • Cash from operations turning positive when occupancy returns to at least 65%, which Curtis projects will be in the first half of 2021
• While a peak in new domestic Covid-19 cases/deaths “reverses investors’ bunker mentality,” Curtis says the “key reversals for cash from operations is accelerating new bookings and the cash that comes with it;” 1Q 2021 “could be the turning point”
• The analyst is modeling for a “modest recovery” in revenue